The Canadian dollar has started the week quietly. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2604, down 0.08% on the day. In economic news, the U.S. releases key consumer sales reports. Retail Sales are expected to improve to 0.4%, after two straight declines. Core Retail Sales is forecast to remain unchanged at 0.2%. On Tuesday, the U.S. releases Building Permits and Housing Starts.
It was a dramatic weekend, as a U.S.-led strike destroyed several chemical installations in Syria. Predictably, Syria and Russia strongly condemned the attack, but are unlikely to retaliate despite the rhetoric. The markets had already priced in an attack, and are hopeful that Trump’s declaration of “mission accomplished” means that things will remain relatively quiet in Syria. However, further chemical attacks by the Syrian regime could trigger a response from the U.S. and its allies, which could result in volatility in the markets, and minor currencies like the Canadian dollar would likely take a hit.
The Canadian dollar has looked sharp in the month of April, posting gains of 2.5 percent. However, there could be some headwinds around the corner, as the U.S. has threatened to attack Syria for an alleged chemical attack on the weekend. The situation has become further complicated as Russia has promised it will shoot down any U.S. missiles aimed at Syria. Trump had vowed that a strike was imminent, but has since backtracked, to the relief of the markets. Still, Trump is unpredictable, and if the U.S. carries out a military strike, panicky investors could dump minor currencies such as the Canadian dollar. Meanwhile, a fact-finding team from the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons has arrived in Syria to attempt to verify if a chemical attack did indeed take place.
USD/CAD Fundamentals
Monday (April 16)
- 8:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate 0.2%
- 8:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate 0.4%
- 8:30 US Empire State Manufacturing Index. Estimate 19.8
- 10:00 US Business Inventories. Estimate 0.6%
- 10:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index. Estimate 71
- 13:15 US FOMC Member Raphael Bostic Speaks
- 16:00 US TIC Long-Term Purchases
Tuesday (April 17)
- 8:30 US Building Permits. 1.33M
- 8:30 US Housing Starts. Estimate 1.27M
*All release times are GMT
*Key events are in bold
USD/CAD for Monday, April 16, 2018
USD/CAD, April 16 at 8:05 EST
Open: 1.2608 High: 1.2609 Low: 1.2601 Close: 1.2604
USD/CAD Technical
| S3 | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| 1.2397 | 1.2496 | 1.2590 | 1.2687 | 1.2757 | 1.2850 |
USD/CAD was flat in the Asian session. The pair edged higher in European trade but has retracted
- 1.2590 is under pressure in support
- 1.2590 is the next resistance line
- Current range: 1.2590 to 1.2687
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.2590, 1.2496, 1.2397 and 1.2281
- Above: 1.2687, 1.2757 and 1.2850
OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio
USD/CAD ratio is almost unchanged in the Monday session. Currently, long positions have a majority (58%), indicative of USD/CAD reversing directions and moving higher.
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