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James Picerno

  • Analysis & Opinion

James Picerno's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of James Picerno's articles, including current analysis & opinion.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to start cutting interest rates at the Sep. 18 FOMC meeting, but the debate is turning to how far the central bank will trim its policy rate once the easing...
US economic activity is on track to remain slow in this month’s second-quarter GDP report. The expansion is expected to continue via the government’s data, but today’s revised nowcast for Q2 suggests...
If the S&P 500 flatlines from current levels through Dec. 31, 2024, the market would still go into the history books as delivering yet another strong year on the basis of an 18.1% year-to-date...
We’ve been here before. Markets price in high odds that the Federal Reserve will soon start cutting interest rates only to learn otherwise. Is this time different? That’s the bet again. To be sure,...
The spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield vs. a ‘fair value’ estimate calculated by CapitalSpectator.com narrowed to a three-month low in June. The market-based yield is still well above this...
The S&P 500 Index closed sharply higher on Wednesday (July 10), rising to yet another record high. Beta risk, in other words, is making more investors look like geniuses this year. The question...
A month ago it was reasonable to wonder if the worst was over for fixed-income securities writ large. Four weeks later, Treasury prices are slightly higher, but the debate continues as investors...
Judging by the analysis in some circles, a recession is a forgone conclusion. More cautious types argue that the expansion continues, but just barely, and that a formal recession will likely start at...
More investors are asking the question lately, in part because markets are seemingly defying gravity and ignoring various macro and geopolitical risks. Yet, a broad reading on market trends has yet...
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, speaking at a conference on Tuesday, gave the doves most of what they wanted to hear. Although he said more evidence was needed to rationalize cutting interest...