James Picerno

Most slices of the US equity market continue to enjoy solid gains so far in 2024, but the momentum risk factor is still the upside outlier, based on a set of ETFs through Tuesday’s close (Apr....

The list of things that could derail risk-on sentiment is long and varied, but at the moment the crowd has shown little enthusiasm for abandoning winning trades.That’s the message via several...

The consensus outlook is still projecting that the Federal Reserve will trim its target interest rate by the end of the year. But as economic growth endures and energy prices rise, market sentiment is...

US economic output is still on a path for a materially softer pace of growth in the first-quarter GDP report scheduled for release at the end of this month.The expansion will be strong enough to...

In mid-December, CapitalSpectator.com mused: “Are Commodities A Compelling Contrarian Trade For 2024?” The answer so far this year continues to be “yes,” as a rally for prices...

Forecasts that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in June took another hit after Monday’s relatively firm manufacturing survey data for March.Markets are still pricing in...

The long-run performance estimate for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked up again in March vs. the previous month. Today’s revised forecast (based on three models defined below) indicates a...

The rally in global assets broadened in March, lifting nearly every slice of the major asset classes. The downside outlier: bonds in emerging markets. Otherwise, last month delivered a clean sweep of...

The bond market has struggled to fully recover from the Federal Reserve’s aggressive run of interest-rate hikes in 2022-2023, but pockets of strength remain conspicuous. Within the fixed-income...

The roaring US stock market has delivered red-hot gains in recent history, but at the expense of future returns. That, at least, is one interpretation via earnings-yield and dividend-yield models that...