James Picerno

New York Fed President John Williams says “I don’t have a recession in my forecast.” Neither does CapitalSpectator.com. That’s not blind adherence to a central banker’s prognostications. Rather, the...

American shares eased last week, but the US stock market remains the clear leader for the major asset classes this year, based on a set of proxy ETFs through Friday’s close (July 7). Vanguard Total...

Yesterday’s news that US companies accelerated hiring in June strengthens confidence that the Federal Reserve will continue to lift interest rates to tame inflation. Equity risk factors with the...

Second-quarter economic activity has picked up for the US, based on the median estimate via several sources compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. The firmer nowcast offers fresh support for expecting that...

The long-run performance for the Global Market Index (GMI) rose to a 6.3% annualized pace in June, moderately above the previous month’s estimate. The shift marks the second month of firmer estimates....

Global markets rebounded in June after widespread losses in May, based on a set of proxy ETFs. The downside outlier to last month’s rally for the major asset classes: US bonds, which continued to lose...

The US stock market has pulled back after briefly hitting a 14-month high on June 16, but there’s still a case for expecting the recent revival in risk-on sentiment to roll on and push markets higher...

The Global Market Index fell 1.7% last week (through June 23), marking the first decline for this multi-asset-class benchmark since the final week of May. Equities in Europe and Asia are moderately...

The Federal Reserve paused rate hikes at last week’s policy meeting, but Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday that more increases were likely. “Inflation...

Technology is the strongest equity sector to date in 2023, but how you define tech matters for evaluating performance, risk and other factors. That’s tougher than it sounds because there are more than...