James Picerno

Shares of small companies and value stocks have had a tough time keeping up with the broad market in recent years, and the headwind for these risk factors is still blowing so far in 2024.By contrast,...

Friday’s payrolls data for February dispatched another upside surprise, reaffirming the now-consensus view that recession risk is low for the US economy.Hiring rose 275,000 last month, beating...

Economic activity remains on a path to slow in the next month’s release of first-quarter GDP data, according to the median nowcast via a set of estimates compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.The...

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify in the House today (Wed., Mar. 6) and markets will be all ears on topics that offer guidance on the outlook for interest-rate cuts.The current consensus...

You can almost set your watch to it. When the stock market enjoys a strong bull run, the bubble warnings come out of the woodwork. That’s not to disparage a healthy discussion about overbought...

The long-term return return estimate for the Global Market Index (GMI) edged up in February, rising from January’s estimate — the first increase in three months. Today’s revised...

Stock markets around the world led returns for the major asset classes in February, topped by US shares, based on a set of ETFs.Bonds, by contrast, declined, in the US and abroad while commodities...

The premise of the momentum factor draws on an empirical fact: price trends persist until they don’t. The latter point is the tricky part and so it’s never quite clear when the party will...

Recent US recession forecasts look set to fail again for the first-quarter economic profile, based on the current lineup of Q1 GDP nowcasts.Output remains on track to slow in the first three months of...

The strong year-to-date gain in the US stock market is broad-based, led by shares in communications services and health care, based on a set of sector ETFs through Monday’s close (Feb. 26).But...