James Picerno

The latest inflation data is sticky, but the markets have only delayed rather than canceled expectations that the Federal Reserve will start trimming interest rates in the near future.Some analysts...

What are the choices for monitoring and estimating recession risk? Slightly lower than the number of stars in the universe. Ok, I’m exaggerating, but not much.The good news: the search for...

Growth remains on track to soften in the first quarter, based on the median GDP nowcast for a set of estimates compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.Although recession risk is still low, output looks set...

Yesterday I outlined the case that several ‘fair-value’ models suggest the current US 10-year Treasury yield appears high relative to the fundamentals.As a quick follow-up, what does a...

The US 10-year Treasury yield spiked yesterday following the release of hotter-than-expected consumer inflation data in January.The news also convinced the market that the Federal Reserve would push...

Much of the global bond market is struggling this year, with a conspicuous exception: below-investment-grade bonds issued by companies in emerging markets.Based on year-to-date results through...

Modest gains in some corners of fixed income contrast with sharp losses elsewhere for year-to-date results with the broadly defined US bond market, based on a set of ETFs through Friday’s close...

It’s hardly the first time that the sharp rise in interest rates over the previous two years has prompted warnings about the business cycle outlook from an economist.Yet the forecast still...

It’s lonely at the top. American shares are posting strong year-to-date results in 2024. Granted, it’s only early February.But the striking distance between the gain in US stocks vs. the...

We’ve been here before. In the spring of 2023, the bond market rallied sharply, effectively forecasting a rate cut by the Federal Reserve.But the punt turned to tears as the Federal Reserve...