James Picerno's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of James Picerno's articles, including current analysis & opinion - Page 29
It wasn’t that long ago that several brave forecasters were advising that 2023 would be the year that value stocks regained their leadership credentials that the historical record suggests is...
The ongoing bear market in Treasury bonds is among the worst on record, but several sectors of the fixed-income market remain ports in a storm, based on year-to-date results through Thursday (Oct. 5)...
Just when you thought it was safe to assume that the soft-landing fix was in, the bond market has thrown a wrench into the machine. So it goes with the constantly shape-shifting risk profile for the...
The expected return for the Global Market Index (GMI) continued to edge higher in September from the previous month. Today’s revised long-run forecast for this benchmark — a...
We may be toiling in the post-truth age, but I stubbornly remain stuck in old-school habits and favor hard data over the rising preference in some circles for creatively reframing facts.Case in point:...
A perfect storm may be brewing for the bond market as a combination of factors drives yields higher.Exhibit A is the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield, which rose again in yesterday’s trading to...
Earlier this month I wrote that there was still room for debating if a broad-based risk-off signal was brewing. Three weeks later, the space is narrowing for keeping an open mind, based on several...
Late last year, and into early 2023, the crowd was all in on the inevitability of a US recession starting in the near future. A Bloomberg headline captured the zeitgeist as the new year dawned:...
Market sentiment is turning cautious as several risk factors come into focus for the fourth quarter, but for the moment the lofty year-to-date performance premium for US shares relative to the rest of...
The collective wisdom of the bond market for much of this year has been betting that interest rates would soon peak and fall. But those bets appear to be unwinding in the wake of Wednesday’s...