James Picerno

The 10-year Treasury yield continues to trade at a level well above CapitalSpectator.com’s fair-value estimate, but the gap suggests that further increases in the benchmark rate are facing stronger...

The global rise in interest rates may be peaking, a view that’s helped lift most corners of foreign bond markets year to date, based on a set of ETFs through yesterday’s close (Aug. 9). Leading the...

The recent rally in risk assets has confounded some analysts, but right or wrong, the revival in animal spirits still has momentum, based on several proxies of market behavior via ETF pairs through...

Investors continue to price in high odds that the Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes are history after last month’s quarter-point increase. But the latest comments by several central bank officials...

Markets around the world took a hit last week, but American shares are still the clear performance leader for the major asset classes year to date, based on a set of ETFs through Friday’s close (Aug....

There are three basic ways to test an investment strategy. Each has its own unique set of pros and cons, but only one is practical.1. Out-Of-Sample Testing With Real MoneyThe best approach is to...

Interest rates continue climbing this year, but that hasn’t stopped bonds from rallying in 2023 when measured in total-return terms. The main exception is long-dated US Treasuries. Otherwise, the...

The gap narrowed in July between the expected return for the Global Market Index (GMI), and its trailing 10-year realized performance. Today’s revised long-run forecast for GMI, a global,...

Most of the major asset classes continued to rally in July, led by a surge in commodities based on a set of ETFs. US bonds, by contrast, remained the outlier, posting a third straight monthly...

Commodities have joined the party. After last week’s rally that lifted a broad measure of commodities, all the major asset classes are now posting gains for the year to date through Friday’s close...