James Picerno

This year’s rally in US stocks continues to rely heavily on a handful of red-hot sectors, based on a review of ETFs through yesterday’s close (July 26). Shares in technology, communications and...

Tomorrow’s initial estimate of US economic activity by the government for the second quarter (scheduled for Thursday, July 27) is expected to report that a moderate expansion continues, based on the...

The price of the world’s favorite precious metal remains near its upper range of the past three years, but this is disappointing for gold bulls. The surge of inflation in the wake of the pandemic...

American shares remain firmly in the lead for the major asset classes year to date, based on a set of ETF proxies through Friday’s close (July 21). Markets generally are posting solid gains in 2023,...

The future’s still uncertain, of course, and so all forecasts should be viewed cautiously. For perspective, let’s start with the one thing we know is true: We’re closer to the peak than we were in the...

One of Wall Street’s famous maxims is that bull markets climb a wall of worry. On that score, there’s no shortage of real and potential hazards lurking. But as recent history suggests, the crowd isn’t...

Across-the-board rallies in all the major asset classes last week strengthened year-to-date performances in markets around the world based on a set of ETFs. The downside outlier: a broad measure of...

This week’s news on consumer inflation supports the case for expecting that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes are approaching the end game. The basic calculus is that are disinflation...

The 10-year Treasury yield looks elevated relative to CapitalSpectator.com’s fair-value modeling. But after yesterday’s news that US consumer inflation fell more than expected in June, the relatively...

New York Fed President John Williams says “I don’t have a recession in my forecast.” Neither does CapitalSpectator.com. That’s not blind adherence to a central banker’s prognostications. Rather, the...