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Michael Ashton

  • Analysis & Opinion

Michael Ashton's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Michael Ashton's articles, including current analysis & opinion.

This is the reason that serious people don’t choose a trend length that happens to fit with their narrative. For the last few months, supposedly serious economists have crowed about how the 3-month...
It is interesting to me that, with as important and liquid as the inflation-linked bond market is, the tactical allocation between TIPS and nominal bonds is at best an afterthought for most...
One of the successes the Federal Reserve can tout from the last couple of years (and the list of them is pretty short, to be fair) is that after the unprecedented policy actions during COVID caused...
I am a risk manager, both literally and figuratively. Literally, since whether it is with our own funds and strategies or allocations for individual investor clients, or with my trading book back when...
I’m changing the way I do the monthly CPI analysis. Doing it live for an audience was always stressful, especially with the inevitable data issues from time to time. Of course, as an inflation...
Late last year, I was asked on a podcast what one fear I had for 2023 that was out-of-consensus and not expected by markets, but a non-zero probability which if it came to pass would have a huge...
The bungee jumper doesn’t just bounce once. Stated in a more high-falutin’ way, perturbed systems normally don’t converge straight back to equilibrium. Obviously, the 2020-2021 COVID-triggered episode...
It’s important, I think, that I occasionally remind readers of a fact that is supported by overwhelming quantitative evidence, and yet virtually ignored by a wide majority of economists (and central...
Now that we have our first estimate of GDP for Q3, we also have our first estimate of M2 velocity for the third quarter. Because there is an amazing amount of uninformed hypothesis out there, I...
Two weeks ago I pointed out one of the effects of higher interest rates is that leveraged return strategies get swiftly worse as rates rise. Today, I want to talk about another result of higher...