Michael Lebowitz

Numerous reader requests following our article, Agency REITs For A Bull Steepener, prompted us to write this follow-up with more detail about how to analyze agency REITs. This article doesn’t...

On September 18, 2024, the headlines read the Fed cut the Fed Funds rate by 50 basis points. At first blush, one would think that a trader with a crystal ball a couple of days before the Fed action...

In our recent two-part series on the yield curve (Part One  Part Two) we discussed the four predominant yield curve shifts and what they imply about economic activity and monetary...

Not surprisingly, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are taking opposite approaches to modifying the corporate tax code. If enacted, both proposals would significantly impact corporate profits and,...

We have written many articles and commentaries forecasting interest rates. The analysis has used prior and current inflation and economic activity. Additionally, we have looked at market data on...

Part One of this article described the burgeoning bull steepening yield curve environment and what it implies about economic growth and Fed policy. It also discussed the three other predominant types...

The level of U.S. Treasury yields and the changing shape of the Treasury yield curve provide investors with critical feedback regarding the market’s expectations for economic growth, inflation, and...

Profitable bond trading opportunities arise when your expectations about Fed policy differ from those of the market. Therefore, with the Fed seemingly embarking on a series of interest rate cuts, it...

A recent article co-authored by Stephen Miran and Dr. Nouriel Roubini, aka Dr. Doom, accuses the U.S. Treasury Department of using its debt-issuance powers to manipulate financial conditions. They...

Ask economists how they forecast economic activity. It’s likely they will mention productivity, demographics, debt, the Fed, interest rates, and a litany of other elements. Economic confidence is...