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Francesco Pesole

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  • Analysis & Opinion

Francesco Pesole's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Francesco Pesole's articles, including current analysis & opinion.

A fifth straight decline in initial jobless claims places even more emphasis on Tuesday’s CPI data to vindicate markets' residual bets on a September Fed cut. The consensus view has now emerged: a...
Trump's 50% tariff announcement on Brazil, a net importer from the US, appears linked to charges against former President Jair Bolsonaro, and is resulting in significant pressure on the BRL. But...
Today’s June Fed minutes will answer this question. Unless something remarkable emerges, the tariff story itself seems unable to significantly steer the US dollar for now, as markets retain a...
Yesterday’s US data (JOLTS and ISM manufacturing) were stronger than expected, but this provided only limited support for a US dollar still suffering from an asymmetrical negative bias. To watch...
A four-day week in US markets due to Independence Day will offer plenty to judge whether EUR/USD can attempt a move to 1.20 in the near term. Focus will be on the Senate vote on the Big Beautiful...
Yesterday’s US data was a mixed bag, failing to unequivocally endorse the recent speculation on Fed rate cuts. Today, focus will be on the PCE, personal spending and more Fedspeak. EUR/USD has its...
The US dollar's bearish march has continued after the Middle East crisis brought scattered, short-lived support. EUR/USD has broken 1.170 and is setting its sights on 1.20. The recent short-term rate...
We expect the US dollar to become more sensitive to data in the near term, as markets seek a catalyst to double down on recent dovish Fed speculation. Employment figures may be subject to closer...
Markets seem to be trusting the ceasefire between Iran and Israel, and the US dollar is back to testing its lows. Expect US data to play a bigger role from here, especially since Fed Chair Powell's...
Iran and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire, and markets had already started pricing out geopolitical risk yesterday as Iran’s retaliatory strikes against the US appeared measured in size. The US...