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U.S. crude dips below $20 as lockdowns wipe out demand

Published 2020-03-29, 06:29 p/m
Updated 2020-03-30, 08:00 a/m
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The sun sets behind a crude oil pump jack on a drill pad in the Permian Basin in Loving County

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The sun sets behind a crude oil pump jack on a drill pad in the Permian Basin in Loving County

By Bozorgmehr Sharafedin

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices fell sharply on Monday, with U.S. crude briefly dropping below $20 and Brent hitting its lowest level in 18 years, on heightened fears that the global coronavirus shutdown could last months and demand for fuel could decline further.

Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil prices, was down $2.08, or 8.3%, at $22.85 by 1127 GMT, after earlier dropping to $22.58, the lowest since November 2002.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $1.11, or 5.2%, to $20.40. Earlier in the session, WTI fell as low as $19.92.

The price of oil is now so low that it is becoming unprofitable for many oil firms to remain active, analysts said, and higher cost producers will have no choice but to shut production, especially since storage capacities are almost full.

"Global oil demand is evaporating on the back of COVID-19-related travel restrictions and social distancing measures," said UBS oil analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

"In the near term, oil prices may need to trade lower into the cash cost curve to trigger production shut-ins to start to prevent tank tops to be reached," he added.

GRAPHIC: Oil prices - https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/dgkvlgxzpbx/Annotation%202020-03-30%20105330.jpg

Rystad Energy's head of oil markets, Bjornar Tonhaugen, said: "The oil market supply chains are broken due to the unbelievably large losses in oil demand, forcing all available alternatives of supply chain adjustments to take place during April and May," including cutting refinery runs and increasing onshore or offshore storage.

Supertanker freight rates are rising for a second time this month as traders rush to secure ships for storage.

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) analysts said demand from commuters and airlines, which account for about 16 million barrels per day of global consumption, may never return to previous levels.

The contango spread between May and November Brent crude futures reached its widest ever at $13.45 a barrel, while the six-month spread for U.S. crude broadened to minus $12.85 a barrel, the widest discount since February 2009.

Prompt prices are lower than those in future months in a contango market, encouraging traders to store oil for future sales.

"This game of attrition is likely to drag prices even lower and even a price of $10 per barrel is no longer unimaginable," said Hussein Sayed, analyst at FXTM.

Central banks and governments continued with attempts to support their economies but analysts questioned the effectiveness of their measures. JP Morgan predicts global GDP will contract at a 10.5% annualised rate in the first half of the year. [MKTS/GLOB]

On Monday, central banks in China and Singapore aggressively eased monetary policy, while Malaysia's government unveiled a $58 billion stimulus package over the weekend.

Collapsing oil prices have left some African producers facing lost revenue when they most need it to tackle coronavirus.

Sovereign wealth funds from oil-producing countries mainly in the Middle East and Africa are also on course to dump up to $225 billion in equities.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The sun sets behind a crude oil pump jack on a drill pad in the Permian Basin in Loving County

GRAPHIC: Widest contango for Brent, WTI crude oil futures in years - https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/jxlbpgalpqd/ContangoMarch302020.png

Latest comments

What Canadian Co can survive this ? Suncor Imperial CNQ - is that it ? Will affect Enbride and TCP too? Is Chevron maybe Exxon only 2 safe bets !!
Plenty of them can and will survive. 2 things to look for: 1) 2020 hedges and 2) low leverage. Those that meet that criteria will for sure survive.
Canada needs to put tariffs on imported oil equal to the differential we are receiving for our oil. Let's at least give our producers a fair playing field.
But would this not be against free trade with the US? Just curious...
Dude... you are drinking the kool aid pretty hard. The quantity of imported oil is insignificant vs the exporte oil. Tariffs wouldnt do anything.Canadian producers are f* in soo many different fronts: greta thumberg disguised as trudeau as PM, lack of pipelines, oil that is too heavy, expensive operation, etc...Producers won’t get any relief even if trudeau builds 20 pipelines tomorrow.
Canada needs to focus on Saskatchewan and yellowcake. Uranium will be in high demand over the next decade.
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