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UPDATE 2-U.S. natgas unchanged as rising output offsets higher LNG exports

Published 2020-10-01, 11:01 a/m
Updated 2020-10-01, 03:06 p/m
© Reuters.

© Reuters.

(New throughout, updates prices, market activity and comments)

Oct 1 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures were little changed on Thursday as rising output offset a smaller than expected weekly storage and an expected increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said U.S. utilities injected 76 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage in the week ended Sept. 25.

That is a little lower than the 79-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and keeps inventories on track to reach a record 4.1 trillion cubic feet by the end of October. NGAS/POLL EIA/GAS

Front-month gas futures NGc1 settled unchanged at $2.527 per million British thermal units.

Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to a two-week high of 87.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Tuesday from a four-month low of 84.9 bcfd last week.

For the month, however, output was on track to decline for a second time in a row in September to a four-month low of 87.2 bcfd as storms in the Gulf of Mexico, pipeline maintenance and low prices earlier in the year due to coronavirus demand destruction caused energy firms to shut wells and cut back on new drilling. RIG/U

With cooler weather coming, Refinitiv projected demand, including exports, would rise from 83.5 bcfd this week to 85.8 bcfd next week due to higher heating usage and LNG exports, with both Cameron and Cove Point expected back in a week or so. amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants averaged 5.7 bcfd in September. That was the most in a month since May and was up for a second month in a row for the first time since hitting a record 8.7 bcfd in February as rising global gas prices prompted buyers to reverse some cargo cancellations. ended

Week ended

Year ago Five-year

Sep 25

Sep 18

Sep 25

average

(Forecast)

(Actual)

Sep 25

U.S. natgas storage (bcf):

+79

+66

+109

+78

Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year 10-Year

30-Year Norm

Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

86

78

75

73

102 U.S. GFS CDDs

59

67

99

72

52 U.S. GFS TDDs

145

145

174

145

154

Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week Next Week This Week

Five-Year

Last Year Average For

Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

85.6

86.5

87.0

94.4

80.1 U.S. Imports from Canada

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.6

7.6 U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.2 Total U.S. Supply

91.1

92.5

93.4

102.0

87.9

U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.2

1.9 U.S. Exports to Mexico

6.0

6.0

6.0

5.9

4.5 U.S. LNG Exports

5.7

6.4

7.5

6.3

2.3 U.S. Commercial

5.2

5.3

6.1

5.3

6.7 U.S. Residential

4.7

4.9

6.3

4.9

7.0 U.S. Power Plant

30.9

30.7

29.0

34.3

26.8 U.S. Industrial

21.6

21.8

22.1

21.4

21.0 U.S. Plant Fuel

4.2

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.3 U.S. Pipe Distribution

1.8

1.8

1.9

1.8

1.8 U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1 Total U.S. Consumption

68.6

69.0

69.9

72.0

67.7 Total U.S. Demand

82.4

83.5

85.8

86.4

76.4

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

1.66

1.74

Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

0.95

1.18

PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

3.82

3.87

Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL

0.98

1.16

Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

1.43

1.35

Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

1.06

1.18

SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

4.21

5.33

Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

0.73

1.16

SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL

19.00

19.75

PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL

19.50

20.50

Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL

19.25

22.00

Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL

42.64

44.25

Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL

70.25

56.88

SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL

102.00

71.25

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