Sept 30 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased on Wednesday as an increase in output in recent days offset forecasts for more demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 fell 3.7 cents, or 1.4%, to $2.524 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 9:25 a.m. EDT (1325 GMT).
That puts the contract on track to fall about 4% in September after rising by a 10-year monthly high of 46% in August. For the quarter, the contract was on track to rise about 44%, the most in a quarter in four years.
The premium of futures for December over November NGX20-Z20 , meanwhile, hit a record high of 59 cents per mmBtu on Wednesday.
Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to a two-week high of 87.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Tuesday from a four-month low of 84.4 bcfd last week.
In September, however, output was on track to decline for a second month in a row to a 23-month low of 86.7 bcfd as storms in the Gulf of Mexico, pipeline maintenance and low prices earlier in the year due to coronavirus demand destruction caused energy firms to shut wells and cut back on new drilling. RIG/U
With cooler weather coming, Refinitiv projected demand, including exports, would rise from 83.7 bcfd this week to 85.3 bcfd next week due to higher heating usage and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. That was higher than Refinitiv's forecast on Tuesday.
The amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants averaged 5.7 bcfd in September. That was the most in a month since May and was up for a second straight month for the first time since hitting a record 8.7 bcfd in February as rising global gas prices prompted buyers to reverse some cargo cancellations. ended
Week ended
Year ago Five-year
Sep 25
Sep 18
Sep 25
average
(Forecast)
(Actual)
Sep 25
U.S. natgas storage (bcf):
+85
+66
+109
+78
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year 10-Year
30-Year Norm
Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs
78
80
75
73
98 U.S. GFS CDDs
67
70
99
72
54 U.S. GFS TDDs
145
150
174
145
152
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week Next Week This Week
Five-Year
Last Year Average For
Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
85.6
86.1
85.9
94.4
79.7 U.S. Imports from Canada
5.5
5.9
6.1
7.6
8.1 U.S. LNG Imports
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1 Total U.S. Supply
91.1
92.0
92.1
102.0
87.7
U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada
2.0
2.2
2.1
2.2
2.3 U.S. Exports to Mexico
6.0
6.0
6.0
5.9
4.5 U.S. LNG Exports
5.7
6.3
7.5
6.3
2.1 U.S. Commercial
5.2
5.3
6.0
5.3
4.7 U.S. Residential
4.7
4.9
6.2
4.9
3.7 U.S. Power Plant
30.9
31.0
29.0
34.3
32.0 U.S. Industrial
21.6
21.8
22.1
21.4
20.6 U.S. Plant Fuel
4.2
4.3
4.2
4.2
4.4 U.S. Pipe Distribution
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.8
1.9 U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1 Total U.S. Consumption
68.6
69.2
69.6
72.0
67.4 Total U.S. Demand
82.4
83.7
85.3
86.4
76.3
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
1.74
1.83
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
1.18
1.40
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
3.87
4.00
Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL
1.16
1.25
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
1.35
1.53
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
1.18
1.72
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
5.33
3.60
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
1.16
1.08
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL
19.75
29.00
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL
20.50
23.75
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL
22.00
18.75
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL
44.25
36.00
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL
56.88
55.25
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL
71.25
56.50