Oct 23 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased on Friday on forecasts for less demand in early November when expected gas price increases will cause power generators to burn more coal and less gas to produce electricity.
That decline came despite the continued rise in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and a slowdown in output, which boosted prices to a 20-month high earlier this week.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 fell 3.2 cents, or 1.1%, to $2.975 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 8:41 a.m. EDT (1241 GMT). Earlier in the week, the contract closed at its highest since January 2019.
For the week, the front-month was on track to gain about 7%, putting it up for a fifth week in a row for the first time since November 2018.
Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 86.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October. That would be the lowest in a month since October 2018.
Refinitiv projected average demand would jump from 89.9 bcfd this week to 97.5 bcfd next week before easing to 97.1 bcfd in two weeks when power generators are expected to burn less gas.
The amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants has averaged 7.1 bcfd so far in October, up from 5.7 bcfd in September.
That would be the most in a month since April and puts exports on track to rise for a third month in a row for the first time since February when feedgas hit a record 8.7 bcfd as rising global gas prices prompt buyers to reverse past cargo cancellations.
In the spot market, meanwhile, next-day gas rose to its highest since March 2019 at the AECO hub NG-ASH-ALB-SNL on cold weather in Alberta and the Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL in Louisiana on rising LNG exports along the Gulf Coast.
Week ended
Week ended
Year ago Five-year
Oct 23
Oct 16
Oct 23
average
(Forecast)
(Actual)
Oct 23
U.S. natgas storage (bcf):
+40
+49
+89
+67
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year 10-Year
30-Year Norm
Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs
216
213
173
145
190 U.S. GFS CDDs
26
29
28
31
22 U.S. GFS TDDs
242
242
201
176
212
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week Next Week This Week
Five-Year
Last Year Average For
Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
84.7
88.5
88.1
95.7
80.1 U.S. Imports from Canada
6.2
5.9
6.2
7.4
7.6 U.S. LNG Imports
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2 Total U.S. Supply
90.9
94.3
94.3
103.1
87.9
U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.4
1.9 U.S. Exports to Mexico
6.2
6.1
6.1
5.4
4.5 U.S. LNG Exports
6.5
7.7
8.1
6.9
2.3 U.S. Commercial
5.8
7.1
9.4
7.5
6.7 U.S. Residential
5.6
8.2
12.8
9.2
7.0 U.S. Power Plant
30.9
29.4
28.4
28.8
26.8 U.S. Industrial
21.9
22.6
23.7
22.1
21.0 U.S. Plant Fuel
4.2
4.4
4.4
4.3
4.3 U.S. Pipe Distribution
1.9
2.0
2.2
2.0
1.8 U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1 Total U.S. Consumption
70.4
73.9
80.9
74.0
67.7 Total U.S. Demand
85.2
89.9
97.5
88.7
76.4
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
2.99
2.95
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
0.78
0.90
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
4.18
4.24
Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL
0.67
0.73
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
2.96
2.71
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
1.15
1.12
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
4.05
4.38
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
0.14
1.07
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL
24.50
30.50
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL
27.00
29.08
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL
23.75
30.00
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL
38.70
50.42
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL
36.50
45.50
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL
47.25
49.75