Oct 26 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed to their highest in nearly two years on Monday on forecasts for higher heating demand and concerns that a storm could disrupt Gulf Coast production.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 rose 8.8 cents, or 3%, to $3.059 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) by 9:44 a.m. EDT. Prices earlier rose to their highest since Jan. 25, 2019 at $3.080 per mmBtu.
"We are seeing some very cold weather temperatures that will be coming across in the next week, so we are going to see some very strong demand," said Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago.
Data provider Refinitiv predicted 212 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks in the Lower 48 U.S. states, higher than the 30-year normal of 204 HDDs.
HDDs measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is below 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius) and are used to estimate demand to heat homes and businesses.
Refinitiv projected average demand would jump from 97 bcfd this week to 97.4 bcfd next week.
Concerns that Tropical Storm Zeta, which was poised to turn into a hurricane as it approached the Gulf of Mexico, would disrupt oil and gas production, was also fuelling price gains, Flynn said. Corp CVX.N and BP BP.L have evacuated staff from their U.S. Gulf of Mexico offshore facilities ahead of the storm. output in the Lower 48 U.S. states was at 87.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Sunday, Refinitiv said.
Week ended
Week ended
Year ago Five-year
Oct 23
Oct 16
Oct 23
average
(Forecast)
(Actual)
Oct 23
U.S. natgas storage (bcf):
+40
+49
+89
+67
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year 10-Year
30-Year Norm
Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs
212
216
263
197
204 U.S. GFS CDDs
23
26
18
23
19 U.S. GFS TDDs
235
242
281
220
223
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week Next Week This Week
Five-Year
Last Year Average For
Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
88.5
87.9
87.8
95.7
80.1 U.S. Imports from Canada
5.9
6.6
6.7
7.4
7.6 U.S. LNG Imports
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2 Total U.S. Supply
94.3
94.5
94.5
103.1
87.9
U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.4
1.9 U.S. Exports to Mexico
6.1
5.9
6.0
5.4
4.5 U.S. LNG Exports
7.7
8.9
9.0
6.9
2.3 U.S. Commercial
7.2
9.3
10.0
7.5
6.7 U.S. Residential
8.2
12.4
13.9
9.2
7.0 U.S. Power Plant
29.3
27.9
26.0
28.8
26.8 U.S. Industrial
22.6
23.6
23.4
22.1
21.0 U.S. Plant Fuel
4.4
4.3
4.3
4.3
4.3 U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.0
1.8 U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1 Total U.S. Consumption
73.7
79.8
80.0
74.0
67.7 Total U.S. Demand
89.8
97.0
97.4
88.7
76.4
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
2.91
2.99
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
1.20
0.78
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
4.11
4.18
Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL
1.14
0.67
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
2.93
2.96
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
1.44
1.15
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
3.42
4.05
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
-0.86
0.14
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL
23.25
24.50
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL
23.75
27.00
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL
28.25
23.75
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL
35.00
38.70
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL
30.50
36.50
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL
40.50
47.25