Guggenheim maintained a Buy rating on Dynatrace Inc. (NYSE:DT) and raised the company's price target from $55.00 to $64.00. The adjustment follows a revision of the firm's analytical model for forecasting the software company's financial performance and future revenue.
The revised model by Guggenheim includes an updated calculation of Adjusted New Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR), which now considers year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter foreign exchange impacts and excludes perpetual licenses from all periods. According to the firm, this new model reveals stronger new business momentum for Dynatrace in fiscal years 2022 and 2023, while fiscal year 2024 shows a slight decline. However, this is seen as setting a more manageable comparison for fiscal year 2025.
The firm also noted that the Adjusted New ARR for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025 was significantly better, showing a 13% increase year-over-year, indicating robust business momentum. This supports the view that the consensus for fiscal year 2025, which predicts a 15% year-over-year increase in Total ARR and a 16% increase in total revenue, is well-founded and may even have potential for upside.
Management at Dynatrace is expected to provide an update on the full-year ARR guidance when it reports second-quarter fiscal year 2025 earnings, which is scheduled for late October or early November. The firm also pointed out that the depreciation of the US dollar against major currencies could positively influence reported top-line results and future guidance.
Looking ahead to fiscal year 2026, Guggenheim believes the current consensus growth forecasts of 16% for both Total ARR and total revenue are attainable. This assessment contrasts with the firm's previous model, which suggested there might be risks to these consensus estimates.
Guggenheim concluded its remarks by commending Dynatrace for its transparency in disclosing top-line information and striving for clarity, despite acknowledging that this effort has added complexity to the company's financial reporting.
In other recent news, Dynatrace Inc. reported significant growth in its first quarter of fiscal 2025, with a 20% year-over-year increase in annual recurring revenue (ARR) and a 21% growth in subscription revenue. Total revenue reached $399 million, surpassing Dynatrace's own projections. Meanwhile, Scotiabank (TSX:BNS) maintained a Sector Outperform rating on the company and raised its price target to $55, expressing confidence in the firm's ongoing transformations and strategic initiatives.
Dynatrace shareholders approved an amendment to limit the liability of certain officers, aligning with recent Delaware law amendments. In addition, Lisa Campbell joined the company's Board of Directors, bringing her extensive experience in business and marketing strategy to the company's leadership.
Scotiabank analysts noted the absence of raised targets for fiscal year 2025 ARR or operating margins but remained positive about the company's strategic direction. The bank highlighted Dynatrace's Dynamic Pricing Strategy (DPS), which now represents over 40% of ARR, as a key driver for the company's continued growth.
InvestingPro Insights
As Dynatrace Inc. (NYSE:DT) continues to garner attention with its robust business momentum and Guggenheim's recent Buy rating, a glance at the real-time data from InvestingPro provides further insights into the company's financial health and market perception. With a market capitalization of $15.66 billion and a high P/E ratio of 100.17, the company's valuation reflects significant investor confidence in its future growth potential. This is underscored by an impressive gross profit margin of 82.49% over the last twelve months as of Q1 2025, which speaks to the efficiency of Dynatrace's operations.
InvestingPro Tips highlight that Dynatrace holds more cash than debt on its balance sheet, offering a level of financial stability that investors often seek. Additionally, the stock's recent performance includes a strong return over the last three months, up 19.47%, suggesting that the market is reacting positively to the company's prospects. For those looking to delve deeper into the analytics, InvestingPro offers further tips on Dynatrace's financial metrics and stock performance, with 14 additional tips available to help investors make informed decisions.
It's also worth noting that analysts have revised their earnings upwards for the upcoming period, indicating a consensus that Dynatrace's financial trajectory may continue to improve. With the next earnings date set for October 31, 2024, investors will be keen to see whether the company can sustain its momentum and meet the heightened expectations reflected in its market valuation.
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