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Gold futures - weekly outlook: January 4 - 8

Published 2016-01-03, 08:46 a/m
© Reuters.  Gold ends 2015 with third consecutive annual decline
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Investing.com - Gold futures edged higher on Thursday on the last day of a year which saw the precious metal post its third straight yearly loss as the start of a rate hike cycle by the Federal Reserve bolstered the dollar and pressured the metal.

Gold for February delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange settled at $1,060.4 a troy ounce, in thin trade ahead of the New Year holiday. For the year the metal was down almost 11%.

A key factor in golds losses in 2015 was the belief that the start of a rate hike cycle by the Fed in conjunction with continuing loose monetary policy from the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan would continue to underpin investor demand for the greenback.

Higher interest rates make the dollar more attractive to yield-seeking investors. A stronger dollar tends to weigh on gold, which is denominated in the U.S. currency and becomes more expensive for many buyers when the dollar rises.

The Fed hiked U.S. interest rates for the first time in almost a decade last month and further rate increases are expected in 2016.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose to a more than one-week high of 98.75 on Thursday. The index ended the month down 1.46%, the first monthly decline since August, but ended the year with gains of 8.96%.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to Friday’s U.S. jobs report for December, as well as reports on U.S. manufacturing and service sector activity. Tuesday’s euro zone inflation report will also be in focus.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, January 4

China is to publish its Caixin manufacturing index.

In the euro zone, Germany is to release preliminary data on consumer inflation.

The U.K. is to release survey data on manufacturing sector activity.

In the U.S., the Institute of Supply Managements is to release data on manufacturing activity.

Tuesday, January 5

Germany and Spain are to release data on the change in the number of people employed. The wider euro zone is to publish preliminary data on consumer inflation.

The U.K. is to release data on construction sector activity.

Wednesday, January 6

China is to publish its Caixin services index.

The U.K. is to release survey data on service sector activity.

Both the U.S. and Canada are to release data on the trade balance.

The U.S. is also to release the monthly ADP nonfarm payrolls report, the ISM report on service sector growth and data on factory orders. Later in the day, the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its December meeting.

Thursday, January 7

Australia is to release reports on building approvals and the trade balance.

Germany is to publish data on factory orders and retail sales. The wider euro area is to report on the unemployment rate.

The Swiss National Bank is to publish data on its foreign currency reserves. This data is closely scrutinized for indications of the size of the bank’s operations in currency markets.

Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz is to speak at an event in Ottawa.

The U.S. is to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, January 8

Australia is to publish data on retail sales.

The U.K. is to report on the trade balance.

Canada is to publish its monthly employment report along with data on building permits.

The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched nonfarm payrolls report.

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