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Crude oil futures - weekly outlook: March 28 - April 1

Published 2016-03-27, 05:26 a/m
© Reuters.  Oil ends lower, logs first weekly loss in more than a month
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Investing.com - Oil futures settled lower on Thursday, as a massive build in U.S. crude inventories helped prices tally their first weekly loss in six weeks.

The crude oil market remained closed Friday in observance of the Good Friday holiday.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in May fell to an intraday low of $38.33 a barrel, the weakest since March 15, before paring losses to end at $39.46, down 33 cents, or 0.83%.

The U.S. benchmark came off the lowest levels of the session in late trade after oilfield services provider Baker Hughes said the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. declined by 15 last week to 372.

For the week, New York-traded oil futures tumbled $2.17, or 5.21%, its first weekly loss since mid-February, as a spike in last week’s U.S. crude inventories underlined concerns over a domestic supply glut.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, crude oil inventories rose by a more-than-expected 9.4 million barrels last week to an all-time high of 532.5 million barrels.

Since falling to 13-year lows at $26.05 on February 11, U.S. crude futures have rebounded by approximately 45% as a decline in U.S. shale production boosted sentiment. However, analysts warned that market conditions remained weak due to an ongoing glut.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for May delivery shed 3 cents, or 0.07%, on Thursday to close at $40.44 a barrel, after slumping to a daily low of $39.22, a level not seen since March 16.

On the week, London-traded Brent futures declined 76 cents, or 1.84%, snapping a five-week win streak, amid uncertainty over a deal between major producers to cap output.

Officials from the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) admitted on Thursday that a highly anticipated output freeze between four major producers could essentially be "meaningless".

Producers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-members are due to meet on April 17 in Qatar discuss the output freeze. But it isn’t clear exactly which, or how many, OPEC and non-OPEC members will attend the meeting.

Brent futures are up by roughly 45%, since briefly dropping below $30 a barrel on February 11. Short-covering began in mid-February after Saudi Arabia and fellow OPEC members Qatar and Venezuela agreed with non-OPEC member Russia to freeze output at January levels, provided other oil exporters joined in.

Meanwhile, Brent's premium to the West Texas Intermediate crude contract stood at 98 cents, compared to a gap of 68 cents by close of trade on Wednesday.

In the week ahead, oil traders will be focusing on U.S. stockpile data on Tuesday and Wednesday for fresh supply-and-demand signals.

Developments surrounding a potential deal between OPEC and non-OPEC producers to cap output will also be in focus.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Tuesday, March 29

The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is to publish its weekly report on U.S. oil supplies.

Wednesday, March 30

The U.S. Energy Information Administration is to release its weekly report on oil supplies.

Friday, April 1

Baker Hughes will release weekly data on the U.S. oil rig count.

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