Investing.com -- Inflation data for May in Mexico exceeded expectations, reaching 4.42% year on year (yoy), significantly surpassing April’s 3.93% yoy. This marks the fifth consecutive rise, pushing inflation above the target set by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico). The primary contributors to this increase were non-core inflation, which soared to 5.34% yoy from April’s 3.76%, and a significant surge in livestock prices, which reached 10.85% yoy.
In monthly terms, inflation rose 0.28% month on month (mom), non-seasonally adjusted (nsa), with livestock prices increasing by 3.48% mom nsa, including a 10.62% increase in poultry prices. Fruits and vegetables also contributed to this rise, with a 2.80% mom nsa increase, including a 10.03% rise in tomato prices. These increases were partially offset by a decrease in electricity prices of 18.45% due to the commencement of the summer’s lower-tariff program.
Core inflation also exceeded expectations, reaching 4.06% yoy, up from 3.93% in the previous month. This is the first time core inflation has surpassed Banxico’s range since August 2024. The increase in core inflation was primarily driven by merchandise, which rose to 3.67% yoy from 3.38% in April, with food leading at 4.63% yoy and non-food following at 2.84% yoy. Services, however, eased slightly to 4.49% yoy from 4.56% in April.
Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) (BofA) has revised its inflation forecasts upward in light of May’s figures. The bank now predicts headline inflation will reach 4.5% yoy by the end of 2025, up from the previous forecast of 4.2%. However, it maintains its expectation for inflation to fall to 3.5% yoy by the end of 2026. BofA also continues to expect core inflation to reach 4.3% yoy by the end of 2025 and 3.9% yoy by the end of 2026.
Despite the rising inflation, Banxico is expected to proceed with a 50 basis point cut at its June 26 meeting, as per its forward guidance. However, it is anticipated that the bank will find it increasingly difficult to argue that the disinflationary process continues.
As a result, it is predicted that Banxico will alter its forward guidance to allow for a 25 basis point cut in August. The risk of Banxico implementing a 25 basis point cut instead of a 50 basis point cut in June is growing, but the expectation remains for a 50 basis point cut as Banxico has been operating as if its inflation target was 4.0% instead of 3.0%.
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