’Fasten your seatbelts’— BTIG strategists warn of coming turbulence
Investing.com -- Canada is repositioning its foreign policy and defense strategy in response to shifting geopolitical currents, with a notable emphasis on deepening ties with Europe and reinforcing its multilateral commitments. Prime Minister Mark Carney, speaking on Tuesday with CNN, outlined a vision that distances Canada from an overreliance on the United States as Washington under President Donald Trump increasingly reverts to transactional, bilateral policy-making.
Carney emphasized that Canada’s expanding partnership with the European Union represents a broader effort to sustain global cooperation where U.S. leadership has diminished. "Literally, I’m coming here (NATO summit in The Hague)... 12 hours ago, I was in Brussels (EU-Canada summit)... agreeing a very comprehensive partnership and a process to have an ever closer economic, defense and security partnership between Canada and EU," he said.
The prime minister also addressed Canada’s commitment to NATO defense targets, suggesting Ottawa is prepared to meet and potentially exceed the 2% of GDP spending benchmark. "We’ve made major investments in defense in recent months. We’re now at the NATO 2% [and] we’re committed to accelerating that," Carney noted, while acknowledging calls for reaching 3.5% or even 5% of GDP for defense spending in the long term, a threshold that could strain federal budgets.
The evolving U.S.-Canada relationship remains delicately balanced as both sides navigate diverging strategic instincts. Despite U.S. political rhetoric and tariffs, Carney asserted, "We’re two sovereign nations who are discussing the future of our trade relationships, our Defense Partnership, which has been very strong in the past." He remained cautious yet optimistic about sustaining ties with President Trump, whom he described as appreciating Canada’s sovereignty even while pursuing a highly personal and bilateral foreign policy agenda.
Ukraine continues to be a cornerstone of Canada’s foreign policy in the current crisis. Carney dismissed the notion that the West is abandoning Ukraine, stating emphatically, "No, the short answer, no," when asked if a retreat by the U.S. would guarantee a Russian victory. Canada, he said, will maintain strong defense and financial support for Ukraine, with new sanctions and aid recently unveiled at the G7 summit in
Canada’s growing role as a geopolitical stabilizer was also evident in its reaction to the latest escalation between Iran and Israel. Carney described Iran’s tempered response to U.S. airstrikes on nuclear facilities as “proportionate, de-escalatory, and appears to have been signaled in advance,” offering a potential diplomatic opening. “Iran’s position has been substantially downgraded, particularly in terms of its airspace control and possibly its nuclear development capabilities,” he added.
While President Trump facilitated a ceasefire accord between Israel and Iran, Carney called it a “diplomatic move by Iran” that has created space for broader engagement in the region. “It presents an opening for diplomacy—that’s the accurate way to describe it,” he said, though he stopped short of predicting a path to a wider regional peace deal.
On Iran’s nuclear ambitions, Carney expressed skepticism over its stated peaceful intentions, citing uranium enrichment levels and hidden facilities as troubling indicators. “The reactions from Iran and its allies have revealed the deceptive nature of much of its nuclear program,” he stated, suggesting heightened scrutiny will remain as part of Canada’s multilateral foreign policy agenda.
As long-standing alliances adjust to changing leadership styles and shifting priorities, Canada is working to reinforce its international role through defense commitments, economic cooperation, and diplomatic engagement. Whether these efforts will lead to lasting influence or be shaped by broader geopolitical tides remains to be seen.