By Michael Elkins
Citi reiterated a Sell rating on Xpeng (NYSE:XPEV) and cut the price target on the stock to $7.21 (From $8.92) after adjusting estimates to reflect the electric vehicle maker’s 4Q22 earnings results.
Citi analysts wrote in a note, “We believe the company’s model-cycle face serious challenges in 2023 and beyond, as foreshadowed by its recent market-share loss on poor sales and order in-takes. Also, we see Xpeng is double squeezed by BYD/ Leapmotor, and sector’s key problem is over-supply, especially B-segment BEV (P7 located in this market). Going forward, we forecast the company to generate net loss over 23-25E at RMB8.6/10.2/12.3bn.”
For 2Q & 4Q23, Citi assumes Xpeng’s sales volume recovers to be in-line with the sector at 20%/35% QoQ, while also factoring in its 3Q23 QoQ to be 60% and doubling of the sector’s growth rate, which yield FY23 sales volume at 127K units (18% below previous forecasts). Citi cut 24/25E sales forecasts from 201.5K/225.7K to 146.1K/168.0K units. On that, the analysts assume a lower FY23-25E GPM at 9.1/10.2/10.1%, respectively.
Shares of XPEV are down 5.66% in premarket trading on Monday.