(Reuters) - The capacity of coal-fired power plants in the United States by 2050 will decline by more than half from 2022 levels, as environmental regulations raise costs and new plants powered by natural gas and renewable energy displace the aging fleet, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Thursday.
The Biden administration unveiled a sweeping plan to slash greenhouse gas emissions from the U.S. power industry, one of the biggest steps so far in its effort to decarbonize the economy to fight climate change.
In the EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2023, three scenarios with varying costs of zero-carbon technology projected that coal-fired electric-generating capacity will decline by 52% to 88% to between 97 gigawatts (GW) and 23 GW by mid-century.
All three cases "reflect laws and regulations adopted through mid-November, including the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which provides tax credits for zero-emission technologies," the EIA said.
The forecasts do not account for Thursday's proposal to limit how much carbon dioxide power plants, the source of more than a quarter of U.S. emissions, can put into the atmosphere.
The plan will require coal plants that run past 2040 to install carbon capture and storage(CCS) technology starting in 2030. Those shutting between 2035 and 2040 would be required to co-fire with 40% gas by 2030.
The Environmental Protection Agency projects the plan would cut emissions from coal plants and new gas plants by 617 million tonnes between 2028 and 2042, the equivalent of reducing the annual emissions of 137 million passenger vehicles.
The EIA projected that the combined capacity from solar and wind will more than triple by 2050, making up between 40% and 69% of U.S. electricity generation. Coal would still provide between 1% and 8% of electricity in 2050, due to its ability to operate around the clock without dependence on the availability of sunlight or wind.