Get 40% Off
⚠ Earnings Alert! Which stocks are poised to surge?
See the stocks on our ProPicks radar. These strategies gained 19.7% year-to-date.
Unlock full list

GLOBAL MARKETS-Trade war thaw and ECB stimulus hopes buoys stocks

Published 2019-09-12, 07:06 a/m
Updated 2019-09-12, 07:10 a/m
© Reuters.  GLOBAL MARKETS-Trade war thaw and ECB stimulus hopes buoys stocks

* MSCI's world equity index touches highest since Aug. 1

* U.S. and China ease trade war tensions

* ECB to announce fresh stimulus measures at 1145 GMT

* Yuan rises to three-week high

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh (Updates prices; adds investor comment.)

By Tom Wilson

LONDON, Sept 12 (Reuters) - World stocks climbed to their highest in six weeks on Thursday as the European Central Bank prepared to offer new stimulus measures and the United States and China made mutual concessions in their trade dispute, improving demand for riskier bets.

U.S. President Donald Trump delayed an increase in tariffs on Chinese goods by two weeks, after China exempted some U.S. drugs and other goods from tariffs. The two moves buoyed stock markets from Asia to Europe and put pressure on safe assets like the Japanese yen. world equity index .MIWD00000PUS , which tracks shares in 47 countries, rose 0.1% to its highest since Aug. 1. It was on course for its seventh straight day of gains, its best winning streak in since early June.

Europe's Euro STOXX 600 .STOXX climbed to its highest in nearly seven weeks, then gave up the gains. Paris .FCHI and London .FTSE markets also relinquished early gains, though Frankfurt .GDAXI held onto a 0.2% advance. Wall Street futures gauges ESc1 were up 0.1%.

Some analysts said investors were getting too eager for good news on the U.S.-China trade war. The prospects of a quick resolution were still remote, they warned.

"I don't think we're heading for a deal soon," said Neil Wilson, chief market analyst at Markets.com. "The market is just buying on any kind of positive news – it seems hungry for anything. It's setting itself up for a bit of disappointment."

The ECB's move, due at 1145 GMT, also carries a risk of overly optimistic market expectations, investors said.

Major central banks worldwide are loosening monetary policy, inflation expectations are sliding and the powerhouse German economy is at risk of recession. Consequently, ECB President Mario Draghi has all but promised more support. the central bank's exact moves are far from certain, and any decision that underwhelms markets could push up borrowing costs.

Among the likely measures are a cut in the ECB's record-low minus 0.4% deposit rate, a multi-tier deposit rate, and new guidance on rates that would tie any move to certain inflation conditions.

A new round of bond buying, the bank's most potent weapon, is also an option - but policymakers from Germany to France are sceptical about that move.

"We could see some disappointment here. The challenge is more about forward guidance and reassurance for the future," said Christophe Barraud, chief economist at Market Securities in Paris.

"It would be surprising if the ECB launches a big stimulus right now ahead of uncertainties such as hard Brexit and the trade war."

After the ECB decision, the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates next Wednesday and the Bank of Japan and Swiss National Bank next Thursday also may ease.

BONDS CALM, YUAN RISES

Euro zone government bonds were steady in early trade, after rising from record lows reached a week ago on doubts that the ECB would resume asset purchases. the ECB cuts rates by 10 or 20 bps is neither here or there," said Chris Scicluna, head of economic research at Daiwa Capital Markets. "The big question is whether they restart QE, and if they don't, we will see a further sell-off in bonds, especially longer-dated ones."

The optimism over trade and the looming ECB decision were felt in currency markets, too.

The euro EUR=EBS fell to a one-week low of $1.0983 overnight on expectations of ECB easing before steadying in morning trade. It has shed 3.5% since June.

With risk-hungry investors emboldened, the Chinese yuan CNH= gained 0.4% against the dollar, touching a three-week high of 7.0855.

Stephen Gallo, European head of FX strategy at BMO Capital Markets, said he was surprised by the rebound, particularly in the yuan pushing beyond 7.10 to the dollar.

"The bigger picture is one of a very tense geopolitical environment that is unlikely to be rectified quickly," he said.

The Japanese yen, a safe haven for nervous investors, fell to a six-week low against the dollar, and was last down 0.1% at 107.88.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 fell as a meeting of the OPEC+ alliance yielded no discussion about increasing supply cuts. They focused instead on bringing Nigerian and Iraqi output down to their agreed quotas.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 fell 69 cents, or 1.1%, to $60.12 a barrel by 1055 GMT, heading for a third session of losses.

For Reuters Live Markets blog on European and UK stock markets, please click on: LIVE/

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.