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'Must Win,' 'Make or Break': Biogen Could Stage a Massive Rally on Positive Clarity-AD Results - Analyst

Stock Markets Sep 27, 2022 09:18
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By Senad Karaahmetovic

Ahead of the expected data from the CLARITY-AD pivotal trial of lecanemab in Alzheimer's disease, a BMO analyst weighed in on potential outcomes and what they would mean for Biogen (NASDAQ:BIIB) shares.

The analyst sees CLARITY-AD as a “must win,” "make or break" for the biotech giant.

“Lecanemab either hits and Biogen has a chance at righting the ship, or the trial fails with a less certain future,” the analyst said in a research note.

The analyst sees four potential trial outcomes:

  1. Strong positive - BIIB shares could rally to over $300;
  2. Modestly positive (likely outcome) - BIIB shares could rally to about $250;
  3. Modestly negative - Biogen stock weaker to $180; and
  4. Strong negative - Biogen shares down to $170.

“While we like the risk/reward (trial hits BIIB could be up to $300+/sh, with failure driving shares to ~$170), we find it challenging to have an edge into the trial results. If anything, as a read-through, a modestly positive trial is likely a positive for LLY,” he concluded.

Biogen shares closed at $195.75 yesterday and are up by over 2% in pre-market Tuesday.

'Must Win,' 'Make or Break': Biogen Could Stage a Massive Rally on Positive Clarity-AD Results - Analyst
 

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