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Record India Stock Run Is Increasing Risks for Nation’s Economy

Published 2021-09-16, 04:08 a/m
Updated 2021-09-16, 04:08 a/m
© Reuters

© Reuters

(Bloomberg) -- India’s record-breaking stock rally may be enriching investors, but it is posing risks for the nation’s economy, according to Bloomberg Economics. 

The economy’s vulnerability to a market setback has increased given/amid the sharp run-up in gains. And a retreat for theNifty 50 Index, trading at about 35% above its historical trend level, would reduce gross domestic product by 1.4% in the same quarter of the shock and by 3.8% over the following year, Ankur Shukla, an economist with Bloomberg Economics, wrote in a separate note. 

“The higher stocks climb, the greater the risks to the economy if they correct -- an important consideration at a time when the Federal Reserve is weighing the timing of tapering stimulus,” Shukla said. 

The Nifty 50 has rallied nearly 26% this year, the best-performing major stock index in Asia, despite the fresh waves of Covid-19 outbreaks in the country. Investors have been betting on a a pick-up in consumer demand, record-low interest rates and improving prospects for the manufacturing sector.

As a result, the Nifty is now trading at 22.2 times estimated 12-month earnings, well above its five-year average of 18.5. By comparison, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index is trading at a multiple of 12.7. 

 

 

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