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Tencent's Big Beat Falls Flat With Analysts Pining for New Games

Published 2018-11-14, 07:33 p/m
Updated 2018-11-14, 09:29 p/m
© Reuters.  Tencent's Big Beat Falls Flat With Analysts Pining for New Games

© Reuters. Tencent's Big Beat Falls Flat With Analysts Pining for New Games

(Bloomberg) -- Tencent Holdings Ltd. failed to deliver on the one thing analysts were looking for from its third-quarter update: when will China approve new games.

The company’s management told analysts late Wednesday it didn’t have much of an update regarding the games approval process that has been at the center of the stock’s $245 billion loss of value since January.

Here’s what analysts have to say:

JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM).

  • Cuts price target to HK$345 from HK$400 and removes Tencent as top sector pick, writes analyst Alex Yao
  • "Visibility on new game monetization approval, the single-most important swing factor of 2019 gaming revenue, remains as low as before the print" and the approval suspension seems more serious than initially thought
  • Still, cautiously optimistic that approval process will resume by the end of 2019
  • Expansion into industrial Internet looks like a short-term pain point but a long-term gain; it could take years for financial returns to emerge
  • Cuts 2019/2020 EPS targets by 11%/9%
  • Prefers Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) among large caps on better control of earnings generation capability

Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C).

  • Lowers price target to HK$392 from HK$420 and stays buy, write analysts including Alicia Yap
  • Near-term games revenue growth outlook "remains murky" as there is no sign of when approval will be resumed, and given the implementation of real-ID verification for Honour of Kings
  • "Tencent’s recent reorganization upgrade and its latest strategic focus on industrial Internet position it as a key digital assistant to industry partners, whereby it could create another internet empire surrounding enterprises and providing support to provincial and municipal services"
  • Reduces 2019 adjusted EPS target to HK$11.50 from HK$13.10

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS)

  • Cuts price target to HK$370 from HK$420, stays overweight; "we believe cautious forecasts are prudent given macro risk," write analysts including Grace Chen
  • Online game revenue was lower than expected, mainly due to weakness in PC game sales
  • "VAS gross margin contracted to a record low of 56.5%, likely due to unfavorable product mix with softer-than-expected PC game sales"
  • Online ad revenue was a highlight, driven by strength in the social and others segment, such as WeChat Moment, Mini Program and QQ KanDian, write analysts including Grace Chen
  • Also likes the 3Q figure for revenue from other businesses. Strength in that segment was driven by commercial payments, fintech services and cloud

Jefferies Group LLC

  • Results "better than feared," as sequential recovery in mobile games and re-accelerating ad growth offset PC games weakness, write analysts including Karen Chan
  • Clarity on game approval timeline remains low, but 15 approved games in pipeline should provide a buffer of 2-3 quarters
  • Cloud and mini programs show long-term monetization potential
  • Maintains buy rating and HK$385 price target

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