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Investing.com -- UBS has upgraded its long-standing underweight rating on the global luxury sector to benchmark, citing both tactical and structural reasons.
The move comes despite the firm maintaining that a "meaningful recovery in growth is unlikely to come before H2 2026."
The sector’s recent underperformance is historically rare and has typically led to outperformance 76% of the time over a three-month period, UBS analysts said.
“The sector is nearly 3 standard deviations oversold (relative to the market),” they noted.
On a structural basis, UBS argued that valuations are not excessive. The sector’s 80% premium to the broader market is “only 0.7 standard deviations expensive,” while HOLT’s valuation metrics show global luxury trading near 15-year lows.
The bank adds that earnings have also normalised, with profits now just 9% above trend, down from 50% at their peak.
UBS also pointed to supportive U.S. tailwinds. With U.S. equities back at highs and affluent consumers holding excess savings, the firm said, “Each 10% on U.S. equities (if maintained) adds 0.6-1.2% to U.S. consumption.” Tax cuts proposed in the "Big, Beautiful Bill" could further stimulate demand.
However, China remains a headwind and “the housing outlook still looks problematic,” UBS warned, noting real estate wealth is a major driver of luxury consumption in China, which represents about 28% of global luxury demand.
UBS continues to view the sector as a "trading sector" and sees upside surprises from Buy-rated Burberry (LON:BRBY) and Richemont (SIX:CFR) in the upcoming earnings season.
Hermes and Richemont “both look cheap” on a P/E relative basis, while China’s Anta Sports (HK:2020) is highlighted as attractively valued.
Despite the upgrade, UBS refrains from an outright overweight call, citing macroeconomic, valuation, and currency risks.