Investing.com -- Equity investors hoping for a "Trump put" to stabilize markets may be disappointed, according to Barclays (LON:BARC) analysts.
The bank argues that, based on historical patterns from Trump’s first term, the stock market is unlikely to be a top priority for the administration until progress is made on tax, border security, and trade policies.
"Don’t count on a ’Trump put’ coming to the market’s rescue," Barclays wrote, noting that while speculation has grown about a potential pivot on tariffs amid recent market weakness, past actions suggest otherwise.
During the 2018 U.S.-China trade war, Trump’s mentions of the stock market on social media were relatively quiet, even during equity selloffs, except for a brief pickup ahead of the U.S. midterm elections, Barclays noted.
They add that it wasn’t until mid-2019—when the administration felt it had achieved key policy objectives, including tax cuts and border security—that Trump became more vocal about the stock market.
"Tweets do not equate to policy," the bank stated, cautioning against reading too much into public statements or social media activity.
However, the pattern from Trump’s first term suggests markets will likely play second fiddle to policy priorities once again, according to the bank.
Extrapolating this to today, Barclays analysts believe the current administration will focus first on implementing its agenda before addressing market concerns.
The firm also pointed to recent comments from Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent, which have downplayed expectations of direct intervention in financial markets.
Ultimately, Barclays sees the likelihood of a "Trump put" as low, warning that investors should prepare for a period where policy decisions drive market volatility rather than explicit support from the White House.