Nov 11 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures on Monday were on track for their biggest daily percentage decline since January on moderating weather forecasts for this week and next week.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) were down 14.3 cents, or 5.1%, to $2.646 per million British thermal units at 9:00 a.m. EDT (1400 GMT), on track for its biggest daily percentage decline since Jan. 28 when the front-month dropped 8.4%.
The U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) forecast temperatures in the Lower 48 U.S. states would switch from colder than normal in the eastern half of the country over the next six to 10 days to warmer than normal during the eight to 14 day period.
Last week when meteorologists were calling for colder weather through late November, speculators cut their net short positions on the NYMEX and Intercontinental Exchange by 86,913 contracts, the most on record, to 86,834, according to Refinitiv data going back to 2010.
Those cold forecasts also caused next-day gas for Monday to rise to its highest since March at the Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL benchmark in Louisiana.
But with the latest weather forecasts, data provider Refinitiv projected average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would fall to 107.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) next week from 115.4 bcfd this week.
That is lower than Refinitiv's forecasts on Friday of 109.4 bcfd next week and 116.2 bcfd this week.
Gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants rose to 7.3 bcfd on Sunday from 7.0 bcfd on Saturday, according to Refinitiv data. That was up from last week's average of 7.2 bcfd following the increase in flows to Cheniere Energy Inc's LNG.A Corpus Christi plant in Texas and compares with an all-time daily high of 7.7 bcfd on Nov. 2.
Pipeline flows to Mexico held at 5.4 bcfd for a second day in a row on Sunday, according to Refinitiv data. That compares with an average of 5.5 bcfd last week and an all-time daily high of 5.8 bcfd on Oct. 17.
Analysts said utilities likely added just 8 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended Nov. 8. That compares with an injection of 42 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2014-18) average build of 30 bcf for the period. EIA/GAS
If correct, the increase would boost stockpiles to 3.737 trillion cubic feet (tcf), cutting the current surplus over the five-year average of 3.730 tcf to just 0.2% for this time of year.
Earlier this year, the amount of gas in inventory was as much as 33% below the five-year average in March. But record production allowed utilities to inject 2.569 tcf of gas into storage since April 1, turning the deficit into a surplus during the week ended Oct. 11. That was the second biggest amount of gas added during the April-October storage injection season, following 2014's record 2.727 tcf increase, according to federal data.
Gas production in the Lower 48 slipped to 94.8 bcfd on Sunday from 95.1 bcfd on Saturday, according to Refinitiv data. That compares with an average of 94.7 bcfd last week and an all-time daily high of 95.2 bcfd on Nov. 2.
Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year
Nov. 8
average
8(Forecast) 1(Actual)
Nov. 8
U.S. natgas storage (bcf):
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day Prior Day
Prior
10-Year
30-Year
Norm U.S. GFS HDDs
284 U.S. GFS CDDs
9 U.S. GFS TDDs
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current
Next Week This week Five-Yea
last year
Average
Month U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
76.3 U.S. Imports from Canada
7.9 U.S. LNG Imports
0.2 Total U.S. Supply
102.1
102.7
102.6
U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada
2.4 U.S. Exports to Mexico
3.7 U.S. LNG Exports
1.5 U.S. Commercial
10.9 U.S. Residential
16.0 U.S. Power Plant
22.5 U.S. Industrial
22.8 U.S. Plant Fuel
4.7 U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.1 U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1 Total U.S. Consumption
79.1 Total U.S. Demand
102.0
115.4
107.8
111.8
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Current Day Prior Day
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL
33.50
42.50
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL
33.75
39.21
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL
31.00
39.25
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL
38.50
55.00
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL
44.00
54.25
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL
39.25
55.75