Dec 2 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose on Monday from a five-week low last week on forecasts for more heating demand through the middle of December than previously predicted.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were up 5.8 cents, or 2.5%, to $2.339 per million British thermal units at 8:52 a.m. EST (1352 GMT). On Friday, the contract settled at its lowest since Oct. 22.
Despite Monday's front-month gain, the spread between several contracts used to bet on winter weather hit the lowest in years for this season as record production and adequate storage cause the market to give up on worries about any shortfall in supplies. But for next winter, spreads rose to their highest in years as traders start to focus on next year.
The premium of January futures over February NGF20-G20 briefly fell to its lowest since January 2018, while the premium of March over April NGH20-J20 fell to a record low several times last week.
Looking to next winter, however, the premium of November over October NGV20-X20 rose to its highest since April 2011.
With a seasonal cooling of the weather, data provider Refinitiv projected average gas demand in the U.S. Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise to 120.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) next week from 116.3 bcfd this week.
That compares with Refinitiv's estimates on Friday of 114.8 bcfd for next week and 114.4 bcfd for this week.
Gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants rose to 7.5 bcfd on Sunday from 7.4 bcfd on Saturday, according to Refinitiv data. That compares with an average of 7.3 bcfd last week and an all-time daily high of 7.9 bcfd on Nov. 28.
Pipeline flows to Mexico, meanwhile, slipped to 5.0 bcfd on Sunday from 5.4 bcfd on Saturday, according to Refinitiv data. That compares with an average of 5.4 bcfd last week and an all-time daily high of 6.2 bcfd on Sept. 18.
Analysts said utilities likely pulled just 29 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended Nov. 29. That compares with a withdrawal of 62 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2014-18) average decline of 41 bcf for the period. EIA/GAS
If correct, the decrease would cut stockpiles to 3.581 trillion cubic feet (tcf), 0.5% below the five-year average of 3.600 tcf for this time of year.
Analysts said stockpiles will likely return to a surplus over the five-year average during the next month or so as rising production enables utilities to leave more gas in storage.
Gas production in the Lower 48 states slipped to 95.2 bcfd on Sunday from a record 96.3 bcfd on Saturday, according to Refinitiv. That compares with an average of 95.9 bcfd last week.
Week ended
Week ended Year ago
Five-year
Nov. 29
average Nov.
29(Forecast) 22(Actual)
U.S. natgas storage (bcf):
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year Norm 30-Year Norm U.S. GFS HDDs
396 U.S. GFS CDDs
4 U.S. GFS TDDs
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current
Next Week
This week
Five-Year
last year
Average For
Month U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
76.4 U.S. Imports from Canada
8.5 U.S. LNG Imports
0.3 Total U.S. Supply
102.8
103.5
104.3
U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada
2.5 U.S. Exports to Mexico
3.6 U.S. LNG Exports
1.6 U.S. Commercial
14.1 U.S. Residential
23.8 U.S. Power Plant
23.4 U.S. Industrial
23.4 U.S. Plant Fuel
4.7 U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.7 U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1 Total U.S. Consumption
103.6
92.2 Total U.S. Demand
107.6
116.3
120.3
110.7
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Current Day Prior Day
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL
27.50
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL
25.50
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL
23.00
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL
45.92
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL
27.00
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL
43.00