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By Benjamin SchroederThe fair value number for the US 10-year yield is 4%, but we really need to see Friday's payrolls number first. The bond market is screaming at us that it'll be weak. But unless...
Treasury yields took a nosedive amid ongoing rate cut bets following comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, normally known as a hawkish voice, who suggested on Tuesday that the...
By Benjamin Schroeder & Padhraic GarveyFinancial conditions eased markedly through November, as market rates fell and credit spreads tightened (record month for bond returns). The recessionary...
Investors are increasing their collective bets that the Federal Reserve will soon start cutting interest rates – a bet that went into overdrive this week and ignited the strongest rally in bonds...
By Benjamin Schroeder & Padhraic GarveyThe rates rally found its confirmation in German and Spanish inflation data ahead of today's eurozone release, but finally seemed to pause after more hawkish...
By Padhraic Garvey & Benjamin SchroederRates continue to push lower after a soft 7-year US Treasury auction as Federal Reserve officials offer little pushback against the market's pricing of rate...
Government bond yields, which had rapidly retreated last week amid hopes the Fed has finished its rate hike cycle, changed little over this holiday-truncated week. The U.S .10-year Treasury yield...
By Benjamin SchroederMarkets are clearly eyeing the turn of the rate cycle, but amid central banks’ 'high for longer' messaging and data releases, volatility remains elevated. Add to that the...
By Benjamin Schroeder and Padhraic GarveyWhile the market is clearly eyeing a change in the rate cycle, 10-year UST yields are still fighting a battle along the 4.5% area, with the deficit-induced...
Today’s “fair value” estimate of the US 10-year Treasury yield continues to suggest that the current market rate is unusually lofty and that the spread will soon narrow....
By Padhraic Garvey & Benjamin SchroederHow convinced are we that the Fed has peaked? You can never be 100% sure on this, but the odds firmly favor the view that they’re done. That places...
Current yields for the major asset classes edged higher recently, based on a set of proxy ETFs through the close of trading on Monday, Nov. 13.The average yield for global risk assets ticked up to...
By Benjamin Schroeder and Padhraic GarveyThe tension between markets eyeing a change in the rating cycle discount and central banks pushing back should raise volatility. Today's US CPI can provide the...
The Federal Open Market Committee is “not confident” that it has tightened policy to a “sufficiently restrictive stance” needed to bring inflation back to the Fed's 2% target,...
US Treasury yields fell again as investors appear more inclined to believe that there will be no further interest rate hikes in the coming months, following the latest policy-setting meeting by the...