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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 10.6x - 11.7x | 11.2x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 2.9x - 3.2x | 3.0x |
| Fair Value | ARS 90.47 - ARS 94.03 | ARS 92.25 |
| Upside | -28.2% - -25.4% | -26.8% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Transportadora de Gas del Norte S.A. | TGNO4 | BASE:TGNO4 |
| YPF Sociedad Anónima | YPFD | BASE:YPFD |
| Japan Petroleum Exploration Co., Ltd. | 1662 | TSE:1662 |
| Conoil Plc | CONOIL | NGSE:CONOIL |
| TotalEnergies Marketing Nigeria Plc | TOTAL | NGSE:TOTAL |
| Sociedad Comercial del Plata S.A. | COME | BASE:COME |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| TGNO4 | YPFD | 1662 | CONOIL | TOTAL | COME | ||
| BASE:TGNO4 | BASE:YPFD | TSE:1662 | NGSE:CONOIL | NGSE:TOTAL | BASE:COME | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 64.3% | 87.1% | 23.2% | 20.7% | 33.5% | 83.2% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 127.0% | 119.7% | 43.9% | 43.6% | 19.3% | 7.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 1452.7% | 120.9% | 35.0% | -28.1% | -29.0% | -82.5% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 45.9% | 23.0% | 19.1% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 9.7% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 33.3% | 19.7% | 25.4% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 9.7% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 48.7% | 21.8% | 28.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 68.7% | 22.0% | 28.8% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 1.7% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 2.78x | 1.29x | 0.41x | 0.64x | 0.25x | 0.37x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.0x | 5.8x | 1.4x | 17.1x | 6.7x | 22.0x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 5.0x | 15.1x | 2.6x | 18.0x | 8.2x | -12.8x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 1.4x | 5.8x | 17.1x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 0.3x | 1.7x | 16.3x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 10.6x | 11.2x | 11.7x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 8,810 | 8,810 | 8,810 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 93,617 | 98,544 | 103,471 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 176,623 | 176,623 | 176,623 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 270,239 | 275,167 | 280,094 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 3,119.0 | 3,119.0 | 3,119.0 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 86.64 | 88.22 | 89.80 | ||||
| FX Rate: ARS/ARS | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 86.64 | 88.22 | 89.80 | 126.00 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -31.2% | -30.0% | -28.7% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | TGNO4 | YPFD | 1662 | CONOIL | TOTAL | COME | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,304,450 | 24,656,980 | (55,271) | 197,993 | 251,110 | 216,373 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 275,937 | 1,320,206 | 142,358 | 7,184 | 91,478 | 48,732 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 901 | 2,256,051 | 215,995 | 0 | 0 | 164,543 | |
| (-) Debt | (65,447) | (11,001,792) | 0 | (42,446) | (103,225) | (26,907) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (250,165) | (29,512) | 0 | 0 | (9,744) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,515,840 | 16,981,280 | 273,570 | 162,732 | 239,363 | 392,996 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 439.4 | 393.3 | 255.9 | 694.0 | 339.5 | 3,119.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 3,450.00 | 43,175.00 | 1,069.00 | 234.50 | 705.00 | 126.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 3,450.00 | 43,175.00 | 1,069.00 | 234.50 | 705.00 | 126.00 | |
| Trading Currency | ARS | ARS | JPY | NGN | NGN | ARS | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |