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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 12.2x - 13.4x | 12.8x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 3.4x - 3.8x | 3.6x |
| Fair Value | ARS 96.30 - ARS 100.48 | ARS 98.39 |
| Upside | -15.9% - -12.2% | -14.1% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Transportadora de Gas del Norte S.A. | TGNO4 | BASE:TGNO4 |
| YPF Sociedad Anónima | YPFD | BASE:YPFD |
| Inpex Corporation | 1605 | TSE:1605 |
| Japan Petroleum Exploration Co., Ltd. | 1662 | TSE:1662 |
| ENEOS Holdings, Inc. | JHJ | DB:JHJ |
| Sociedad Comercial del Plata S.A. | COME | BASE:COME |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| TGNO4 | YPFD | 1605 | 1662 | JHJ | COME | ||
| BASE:TGNO4 | BASE:YPFD | TSE:1605 | TSE:1662 | DB:JHJ | BASE:COME | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 64.3% | 87.1% | 13.5% | 23.2% | 16.2% | 83.2% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 127.0% | 119.7% | 24.0% | 43.9% | -14.5% | 7.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 1452.7% | 120.9% | -5.4% | 35.0% | -14.7% | -82.5% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 45.9% | 23.0% | 65.2% | 19.1% | 6.0% | 9.7% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 33.3% | 19.7% | 70.6% | 25.4% | 5.3% | 9.7% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 48.7% | 21.8% | 67.3% | 28.8% | 5.1% | 3.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 68.7% | 22.0% | 67.2% | 28.8% | 5.1% | 1.7% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 2.22x | 1.21x | 1.22x | 0.38x | 0.25x | 0.34x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.2x | 5.5x | 1.8x | 1.3x | 5.0x | 20.4x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 4.0x | 14.2x | 2.4x | 2.4x | 11.9x | -11.9x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 1.3x | 3.2x | 5.5x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 0.3x | 1.7x | 16.3x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 12.2x | 12.8x | 13.4x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 8,810 | 8,810 | 8,810 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 107,045 | 112,679 | 118,313 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 176,623 | 176,623 | 176,623 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 283,667 | 289,301 | 294,935 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 3,119.0 | 3,119.0 | 3,119.0 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 90.95 | 92.75 | 94.56 | ||||
| FX Rate: ARS/ARS | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 90.95 | 92.75 | 94.56 | 114.50 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -20.6% | -19.0% | -17.4% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | TGNO4 | YPFD | 1605 | 1662 | JHJ | COME | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,038,629 | 23,201,723 | 2,726,375 | (64,995) | 3,093,832 | 180,504 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 275,937 | 1,320,206 | 134,257 | 142,358 | 846,563 | 48,732 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 901 | 2,256,051 | 937,263 | 215,995 | 992,136 | 164,543 | |
| (-) Debt | (65,447) | (11,001,792) | (1,102,822) | 0 | (2,676,027) | (26,907) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (250,165) | (239,395) | (29,512) | (369,903) | (9,744) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,250,019 | 15,526,023 | 2,455,678 | 263,846 | 1,886,601 | 357,127 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 439.4 | 393.3 | 1,197.6 | 255.9 | 2,690.4 | 3,119.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 2,845.00 | 39,475.00 | 2,050.50 | 1,031.00 | 701.24 | 114.50 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 171.87 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 2,845.00 | 39,475.00 | 2,050.50 | 1,031.00 | 4.08 | 114.50 | |
| Trading Currency | ARS | ARS | JPY | JPY | EUR | ARS | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 171.87 | 1.00 | |