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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 47.1x - 52.1x | 49.6x |
Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 21.4x - 23.7x | 22.6x |
Fair Value | ARS 593.20 - ARS 964.03 | ARS 778.61 |
Upside | -56.5% - -29.4% | -43.0% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
BrasilAgro - Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades Agrícolas | AGRO3 | BOVESPA:AGRO3 |
SLC Agrícola S.A. | SLCE3 | BOVESPA:SLCE3 |
Molinos Juan Semino S.A. | SEMI | BASE:SEMI |
Ledesma Sociedad Anónima Agrícola Industrial | LEDE | BASE:LEDE |
Adecoagro S.A. | ADGO | BASE:ADGO |
Cresud Sociedad Anónima, Comercial, Inmobiliaria, Financiera y Agropecuaria | CRES | BASE:CRES |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
AGRO3 | SLCE3 | SEMI | LEDE | ADGO | CRES | ||
BOVESPA:AGRO3 | BOVESPA:SLCE3 | BASE:SEMI | BASE:LEDE | BASE:ADGO | BASE:CRES | ||
Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | -4.6% | 23.6% | 107.2% | 109.0% | 10.9% | 65.7% | |
3Y CAGR | NM- | -4.4% | 393.2% | 160.7% | -10.6% | NM- | |
Latest Twelve Months | 254.1% | 29.3% | -118.4% | -144.8% | -29.5% | -79.4% | |
Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 18.3% | 30.6% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 18.2% | 8.0% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 16.8% | 27.5% | 17.7% | 9.8% | 15.7% | 14.2% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 14.2% | 23.0% | 14.1% | 12.1% | 13.3% | 20.3% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 28.1% | 26.9% | -7.7% | -19.4% | 9.2% | 6.5% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 2.71x | 2.21x | 1.07x | 1.19x | 1.27x | 3.75x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.7x | 7.1x | -16.8x | -8.2x | 5.6x | 52.9x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 9.7x | 8.2x | -13.8x | -6.2x | 13.8x | 57.9x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | -13.8x | 8.2x | 13.8x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBIT | -188.3x | 6.6x | 28.4x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 47.1x | 49.6x | 52.1x | ||||
(x) LTM EBIT | 45,061 | 45,061 | 45,061 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 2,122,979 | 2,234,715 | 2,346,451 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (1,780,318) | (1,780,318) | (1,780,318) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 342,661 | 454,397 | 566,133 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 607.7 | 607.7 | 607.7 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 563.89 | 747.76 | 931.63 | ||||
FX Rate: ARS/ARS | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 563.89 | 747.76 | 931.63 | 1,365.00 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -58.7% | -45.2% | -31.7% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | AGRO3 | SLCE3 | SEMI | LEDE | ADGO | CRES | |
Enterprise Value | 3,332 | 16,118 | 44,152 | 587,865 | 1,887 | 2,609,797 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 64 | 1,253 | 16,438 | 8,216 | 239 | 512,556 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 3 | 6 | 47 | 5,596 | 0 | 192,441 | |
(-) Debt | (1,339) | (9,214) | (885) | (194,655) | (1,275) | (1,428,767) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (183) | (2) | 0 | (40) | (1,056,548) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 2,060 | 7,980 | 59,750 | 407,022 | 811 | 829,479 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 99.6 | 440.9 | 2,500.0 | 438.1 | 88.3 | 607.7 | |
Implied Stock Price | 20.68 | 18.10 | 23.90 | 929.00 | 9.18 | 1,365.00 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 20.68 | 18.10 | 23.90 | 929.00 | 11,650.00 | 1,365.00 | |
Trading Currency | BRL | BRL | ARS | ARS | ARS | ARS | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |