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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 3.1x - 3.4x | 3.3x |
Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 3.0x - 3.3x | 3.2x |
Fair Value | ARS 609.90 - ARS 982.49 | ARS 796.20 |
Upside | -56.9% - -30.6% | -43.7% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
---|---|---|
BrasilAgro - Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades Agrícolas | AGRO3 | BOVESPA:AGRO3 |
SLC Agrícola S.A. | SLCE3 | BOVESPA:SLCE3 |
Molinos Juan Semino S.A. | SEMI | BASE:SEMI |
Ledesma Sociedad Anónima Agrícola Industrial | LEDE | BASE:LEDE |
Adecoagro S.A. | ADGO | BASE:ADGO |
Cresud Sociedad Anónima, Comercial, Inmobiliaria, Financiera y Agropecuaria | CRES | BASE:CRES |
Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
AGRO3 | SLCE3 | SEMI | LEDE | ADGO | CRES | |||
BOVESPA:AGRO3 | BOVESPA:SLCE3 | BASE:SEMI | BASE:LEDE | BASE:ADGO | BASE:CRES | |||
Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
5Y CAGR | 15.3% | 22.2% | 81.3% | 88.6% | 11.4% | 71.8% | ||
3Y CAGR | 12.5% | 16.6% | 108.2% | 115.9% | 10.5% | 68.0% | ||
Latest Twelve Months | 8.7% | 4.6% | -54.0% | -54.1% | 20.4% | -29.2% | ||
Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 18.3% | 30.6% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 18.2% | 8.0% | ||
Prior Fiscal Year | 16.8% | 27.5% | 17.7% | 9.8% | 15.7% | 14.2% | ||
Latest Fiscal Year | 14.2% | 23.0% | 14.1% | 12.1% | 13.3% | 20.3% | ||
Latest Twelve Months | 28.1% | 26.9% | -7.7% | -19.4% | 9.2% | 6.5% | ||
Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 2.72x | 2.23x | 1.09x | 1.17x | 1.27x | 3.78x | ||
EV / LTM EBIT | 9.7x | 8.3x | -14.1x | -6.0x | 13.8x | 58.3x | ||
Price / LTM Sales | 1.69x | 1.11x | 1.47x | 0.80x | 0.59x | 1.22x | ||
Low | Mid | High | ||||||
Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 1.09x | 1.27x | 2.72x | |||||
Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 1.12x | 1.91x | 4.31x | |||||
Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 3.10x | 3.26x | 3.42x | |||||
(x) LTM Revenue | 695,582 | 695,582 | 695,582 | |||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 2,154,125 | 2,267,500 | 2,380,875 | |||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (1,780,318) | (1,780,318) | (1,780,318) | |||||
(=) Equity Value | 373,807 | 487,182 | 600,557 | |||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 607.7 | 607.7 | 607.7 | |||||
Implied Value Range | 615.14 | 801.71 | 988.28 | |||||
FX Rate: ARS/ARS | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | ||||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 615.14 | 801.71 | 988.28 | 1,415.00 | ||||
Upside / (Downside) | -56.5% | -43.3% | -30.2% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | AGRO3 | SLCE3 | SEMI | LEDE | ADGO | CRES | |
Enterprise Value | 3,337 | 16,153 | 44,902 | 579,102 | 1,929 | 2,640,181 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 64 | 1,253 | 16,438 | 8,216 | 239 | 512,556 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 3 | 6 | 47 | 5,596 | 0 | 192,441 | |
(-) Debt | (1,339) | (9,214) | (885) | (194,655) | (1,275) | (1,428,767) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (183) | (2) | 0 | (40) | (1,056,548) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 2,065 | 8,015 | 60,500 | 398,259 | 853 | 859,863 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 99.6 | 440.9 | 2,500.0 | 438.1 | 88.3 | 607.7 | |
Implied Stock Price | 20.73 | 18.18 | 24.20 | 909.00 | 9.66 | 1,415.00 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 20.73 | 18.18 | 24.20 | 909.00 | 12,300.00 | 1,415.00 | |
Trading Currency | BRL | BRL | ARS | ARS | ARS | ARS | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |