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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 1.6x - 1.7x | 1.7x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 1.0x - 1.1x | 1.0x |
| Fair Value | ARS 0 - ARS 184.55 | ARS 64.82 |
| Upside | -100.0% - 229.6% | 15.8% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Pampa Energía S.A. | PAMP | BASE:PAMP |
| Empresa Distribuidora y Comercializadora Norte Sociedad Anónima | EDN | BASE:EDN |
| Compañía de Transporte de Energía Eléctrica en Alta Tensión Transener S.A. | TRAN | BASE:TRAN |
| Dogu Aras Enerji Yatirimlari AS | ARASE | IBSE:ARASE |
| Pluz Energía Perú S.A.A. | PLUZENC1 | BVL:PLUZENC1 |
| EDESA Holding S.A. | EDSH | BASE:EDSH |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| PAMP | EDN | TRAN | ARASE | PLUZENC1 | EDSH | ||
| BASE:PAMP | BASE:EDN | BASE:TRAN | IBSE:ARASE | BVL:PLUZENC1 | BASE:EDSH | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 77.8% | 59.4% | 63.0% | NM- | 1.8% | 56.0% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 107.7% | 174.6% | 137.1% | 122.0% | 4.7% | 53.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -11.0% | 194.3% | 178.5% | -16.4% | -4.2% | 1243.0% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 41.2% | 1.4% | 36.1% | 14.1% | 23.3% | 10.6% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 37.9% | -5.2% | 23.3% | 18.6% | 23.2% | -6.9% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 30.5% | 9.8% | 41.6% | 14.9% | 22.0% | 7.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 29.9% | 8.7% | 45.6% | 16.2% | 21.9% | 10.5% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 2.06x | 0.83x | 2.85x | 0.47x | 1.50x | 0.17x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.9x | 7.3x | 6.2x | 2.9x | 6.8x | 1.7x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 17.8x | 18.0x | 8.1x | 3.0x | 9.2x | 4.7x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.9x | 6.8x | 7.3x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | -4.4x | 1.7x | 2.9x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 1.6x | 1.7x | 1.7x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 33,039 | 33,039 | 33,039 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 52,112 | 54,855 | 57,598 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (53,325) | (53,325) | (53,325) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 0 | 1,530 | 4,273 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 22.9 | 22.9 | 22.9 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 0.00 | 66.85 | 186.68 | ||||
| FX Rate: ARS/ARS | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 0.00 | 66.85 | 186.68 | 56.00 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -100.0% | 19.4% | 233.4% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | PAMP | EDN | TRAN | ARASE | PLUZENC1 | EDSH | |
| Enterprise Value | 5,076,353 | 1,857,110 | 1,023,650 | 16,558 | 6,184 | 54,607 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 1,059,445 | 387,477 | 129,116 | 1,022 | 126 | 28,813 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 1,307,655 | 17,509 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (1,917,751) | (545,759) | (1,061) | (2,992) | (2,579) | (57,288) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (10,344) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (24,850) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 5,515,358 | 1,716,337 | 1,151,705 | 14,587 | 3,731 | 1,282 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,363.5 | 875.7 | 444.7 | 250.0 | 3,033.0 | 22.9 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 4,045.00 | 1,960.00 | 2,590.00 | 58.35 | 1.23 | 56.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 4,045.00 | 1,960.00 | 2,590.00 | 58.35 | 1.23 | 56.00 | |
| Trading Currency | ARS | ARS | ARS | TRY | PEN | ARS | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |