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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | -5.6x - -6.2x | -5.9x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 5.4x - 5.9x | 5.7x |
Fair Value | ARS 709.15 - ARS 827.25 | ARS 768.20 |
Upside | -25.1% - -12.6% | -18.9% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Cresud Sociedad Anónima, Comercial, Inmobiliaria, Financiera y Agropecuaria | CRES | BASE:CRES |
Molinos Juan Semino S.A. | SEMI | BASE:SEMI |
Molinos Rio de la Plata S.A. | MOLI | BASE:MOLI |
Morixe Hermanos S.A.C.I. | MORI | BASE:MORI |
Molinos Agro S.A. | MOLA | BASE:MOLA |
Ledesma Sociedad Anónima Agrícola Industrial | LEDE | BASE:LEDE |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
CRES | SEMI | MOLI | MORI | MOLA | LEDE | ||
BASE:CRES | BASE:SEMI | BASE:MOLI | BASE:MORI | BASE:MOLA | BASE:LEDE | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 65.3% | 97.1% | NM- | 139.2% | 35.1% | 101.9% | |
3Y CAGR | NM- | 227.9% | NM- | 172.8% | 27.0% | 145.6% | |
Latest Twelve Months | -78.5% | -114.3% | -140.7% | 203.6% | 66.8% | -128.9% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 12.1% | 9.4% | 6.1% | 9.4% | 1.3% | 11.0% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 15.2% | 18.8% | 9.0% | 15.1% | 0.6% | 13.5% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 21.4% | 15.1% | -0.1% | 16.2% | 0.8% | 15.2% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 7.1% | -6.4% | -5.6% | 13.2% | 0.8% | -14.5% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 3.85x | 1.17x | 0.92x | 0.76x | 0.43x | 1.23x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 54.2x | -18.4x | -16.4x | 5.8x | 51.6x | -8.5x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 59.4x | -15.1x | -12.0x | 6.5x | 81.6x | -6.3x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | -18.4x | 5.8x | 54.2x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.2x | 3.4x | 4.3x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | -5.6x | -5.9x | -6.2x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | (72,155) | (72,155) | (72,155) | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 401,890 | 423,042 | 444,194 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (180,843) | (180,843) | (180,843) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 221,047 | 242,199 | 263,351 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 438.1 | 438.1 | 438.1 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 504.52 | 552.80 | 601.08 | ||||
FX Rate: ARS/ARS | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 504.52 | 552.80 | 601.08 | 947.00 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -46.7% | -41.6% | -36.5% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | CRES | SEMI | MOLI | MORI | MOLA | LEDE | |
Enterprise Value | 2,694,871 | 48,277 | 731,011 | 75,611 | 1,327,511 | 595,751 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 512,556 | 16,438 | 41,155 | 11,145 | 109,380 | 8,216 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 192,441 | 47 | 34,781 | 0 | 3,258 | 5,596 | |
(-) Debt | (1,428,767) | (885) | (171,482) | (21,562) | (253,591) | (194,655) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (1,056,548) | (2) | 0 | (5) | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 914,553 | 63,875 | 635,465 | 65,190 | 1,186,558 | 414,908 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 607.7 | 2,500.0 | 201.4 | 281.9 | 49.1 | 438.1 | |
Implied Stock Price | 1,505.00 | 25.55 | 3,155.00 | 231.25 | 24,175.00 | 947.00 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 1,505.00 | 25.55 | 3,155.00 | 231.25 | 24,175.00 | 947.00 | |
Trading Currency | ARS | ARS | ARS | ARS | ARS | ARS | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |