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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 11.0x - 12.1x | 11.5x |
Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 9.1x - 10.0x | 9.5x |
Fair Value | Mex$ 261.51 - Mex$ 278.18 | Mex$ 269.84 |
Upside | -9.7% - -4.0% | -6.9% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Sumitomo Corporation | 8053 | TSE:8053 |
Mitsubishi Corporation | 8058 | TSE:8058 |
ITOCHU Corporation | 8001 | TSE:8001 |
Marubeni Corporation | 8002 | TSE:8002 |
Soda Nikka Co., Ltd. | 8158 | TSE:8158 |
Mitsui & Co., Ltd. | 8031 N | BMV:8031N |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
8053 | 8058 | 8001 | 8002 | 8158 | 8031 N | ||
TSE:8053 | TSE:8058 | TSE:8001 | TSE:8002 | TSE:8158 | BMV:8031N | ||
Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 15.6% | 4.1% | 11.4% | 19.1% | 15.4% | 9.2% | |
3Y CAGR | 11.1% | -15.4% | 5.5% | -3.2% | 19.0% | -7.4% | |
Latest Twelve Months | -2.4% | -20.5% | -2.7% | -16.8% | -4.6% | -21.6% | |
Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 4.7% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 3.7% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 6.0% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 4.1% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 5.6% | 2.4% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.9% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 5.6% | 2.4% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.9% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 0.61x | 0.47x | 0.71x | 0.45x | 0.08x | 0.37x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.1x | 9.5x | 9.2x | 7.4x | 2.2x | 7.2x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 10.9x | 19.5x | 15.3x | 12.8x | 2.6x | 12.5x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 2.6x | 12.8x | 19.5x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 6.0x | 12.5x | 19.7x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 11.0x | 11.5x | 12.1x | ||||
(x) LTM EBIT | 432,371 | 432,371 | 432,371 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 4,742,879 | 4,992,504 | 5,242,129 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 3,084,154 | 3,084,154 | 3,084,154 | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 7,827,033 | 8,076,658 | 8,326,283 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 4,038.3 | 4,038.3 | 4,038.3 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 1,938.21 | 2,000.03 | 2,061.84 | ||||
FX Rate: JPY/MXN | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 261.69 | 270.03 | 278.38 | 289.72 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -9.7% | -6.8% | -3.9% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | 8053 | 8058 | 8001 | 8002 | 8158 | 8031 N | |
Enterprise Value | 4,424,642 | 8,723,205 | 10,464,132 | 3,484,034 | 5,472 | 5,581,272 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 589,905 | 1,645,188 | 636,911 | 569,527 | 7,231 | 977,356 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 3,448,121 | 7,127,135 | 4,716,801 | 3,231,746 | 14,553 | 7,164,075 | |
(-) Debt | (3,783,638) | (5,339,302) | (4,621,705) | (2,535,010) | (3,165) | (4,841,260) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (237,096) | (785,608) | (535,640) | (139,397) | 0 | (216,017) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 4,441,934 | 11,370,618 | 10,660,499 | 4,610,900 | 24,091 | 8,665,426 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 1,210.0 | 3,884.7 | 1,418.9 | 1,653.2 | 22.8 | 4,038.3 | |
Implied Stock Price | 3,671.00 | 2,927.00 | 7,513.00 | 2,789.00 | 1,058.00 | 2,145.82 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.41 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 3,671.00 | 2,927.00 | 7,513.00 | 2,789.00 | 1,058.00 | 289.72 | |
Trading Currency | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | MXN | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.41 |