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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 23.4x - 25.9x | 24.7x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 20.7x - 22.9x | 21.8x |
| Fair Value | R$337.42 - R$380.63 | R$359.02 |
| Upside | -13.4% - -2.3% | -7.8% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| LyondellBasell Industries N.V. | LYB | NYSE:LYB |
| Eastman Chemical Company | EMN | NYSE:EMN |
| CF Industries Holdings, Inc. | CF | NYSE:CF |
| Nutrien Ltd. | NTR | NYSE:NTR |
| Yara International ASA | YRAI.F | OTCPK:YRAI.F |
| Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. | A1PD34 | BOVESPA:A1PD34 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| LYB | EMN | CF | NTR | YRAI.F | A1PD34 | ||
| NYSE:LYB | NYSE:EMN | NYSE:CF | NYSE:NTR | OTCPK:YRAI.F | BOVESPA:A1PD34 | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -7.8% | 2.1% | 13.0% | 4.9% | -6.5% | 5.5% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -28.1% | -9.5% | -7.5% | -18.8% | -26.2% | 6.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -31.9% | 33.2% | 8.1% | -22.0% | 97.2% | 3.9% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 10.2% | 13.3% | 32.0% | 15.1% | 9.0% | 22.3% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 8.7% | 11.6% | 34.1% | 12.7% | 3.1% | 21.1% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 6.8% | 14.7% | 29.1% | 10.4% | 5.1% | 23.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 5.6% | 15.1% | 30.9% | 9.7% | 5.9% | 23.4% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.68x | 1.47x | 3.25x | 1.75x | 0.94x | 6.28x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.6x | 7.1x | 7.2x | 10.0x | 8.0x | 17.5x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 12.2x | 9.7x | 10.5x | 18.0x | 15.9x | 26.8x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 9.7x | 12.2x | 18.0x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 22.3x | 25.6x | 28.9x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 23.4x | 24.7x | 25.9x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 2,813 | 2,813 | 2,813 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 65,949 | 69,420 | 72,891 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (11,690) | (11,690) | (11,690) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 54,259 | 57,730 | 61,201 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 890.1 | 890.1 | 890.1 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 60.96 | 64.86 | 68.76 | ||||
| FX Rate: USD/BRL | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 338.98 | 360.67 | 382.35 | 389.52 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -13.0% | -7.4% | -1.8% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | LYB | EMN | CF | NTR | YRAI.F | A1PD34 | |
| Enterprise Value | 26,993 | 13,703 | 19,376 | 41,847 | 12,929 | 74,038 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 1,895 | 418 | 1,406 | 895 | 326 | 1,608 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 4,114 | 18 | 33 | 495 | 150 | 5,311 | |
| (-) Debt | (12,814) | (5,112) | (3,296) | (14,707) | (4,091) | (16,532) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (126) | (73) | (2,517) | (32) | (17) | (2,076) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 20,062 | 8,954 | 15,002 | 28,498 | 9,297 | 62,348 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 321.4 | 115.5 | 162.0 | 487.5 | 254.7 | 890.1 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 62.42 | 77.55 | 92.60 | 58.46 | 36.50 | 70.05 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.18 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 62.42 | 77.55 | 92.60 | 58.46 | 36.50 | 389.52 | |
| Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | BRL | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.18 | |