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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 5.2x - 5.8x | 5.5x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 4.5x - 5.0x | 4.8x |
| Fair Value | R$24.84 - R$28.95 | R$26.90 |
| Upside | -8.9% - 6.1% | -1.4% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Companhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo - SABESP | SBSP3 | BOVESPA:SBSP3 |
| Companhia Catarinense de Águas e Saneamento - CASAN | CASN3 | BOVESPA:CASN3 |
| American Water Works Company, Inc. | A1WK34 | BOVESPA:A1WK34 |
| Emirates Central Cooling Systems Corporation | EMPOWER | DFM:EMPOWER |
| Middlesex Water Company | MSEX | NasdaqGS:MSEX |
| Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais | CSMG3 | BOVESPA:CSMG3 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| SBSP3 | CASN3 | A1WK34 | EMPOWER | MSEX | CSMG3 | ||
| BOVESPA:SBSP3 | BOVESPA:CASN3 | BOVESPA:A1WK34 | DFM:EMPOWER | NasdaqGS:MSEX | BOVESPA:CSMG3 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 19.3% | 14.1% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 10.9% | 8.6% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 42.6% | 23.9% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 11.6% | 19.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 103.7% | 76.0% | 13.8% | 1.8% | 23.0% | 14.7% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 36.3% | 29.7% | 51.7% | 47.8% | 43.5% | 33.4% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 34.7% | 26.4% | 52.9% | 47.2% | 42.9% | 33.4% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 49.4% | 37.1% | 54.1% | 45.8% | 45.0% | 34.8% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 49.6% | 39.7% | 54.0% | 45.1% | 45.9% | 35.5% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 2.52x | 6.82x | 8.74x | 6.31x | 7.02x | 1.95x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.1x | 17.2x | 16.2x | 14.0x | 15.3x | 5.5x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 5.8x | 21.8x | 23.6x | 18.5x | 23.0x | 7.5x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.1x | 15.3x | 17.2x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.8x | 4.7x | 4.9x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.2x | 5.5x | 5.8x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 2,864 | 2,864 | 2,864 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 15,018 | 15,808 | 16,599 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (5,367) | (5,367) | (5,367) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 9,651 | 10,442 | 11,232 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 379.2 | 379.2 | 379.2 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 25.45 | 27.54 | 29.62 | ||||
| FX Rate: BRL/BRL | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 25.45 | 27.54 | 29.62 | 27.28 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -6.7% | 0.9% | 8.6% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | SBSP3 | CASN3 | A1WK34 | EMPOWER | MSEX | CSMG3 | |
| Enterprise Value | 95,576 | 12,073 | 41,956 | 20,719 | 1,374 | 15,711 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 8,137 | 316 | 189 | 2,210 | 3 | 705 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 226 | 0 | 30 | 57 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (27,638) | (2,344) | (14,509) | (5,508) | (396) | (6,072) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | 0 | (178) | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (2) | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 76,300 | 10,046 | 27,666 | 17,300 | 980 | 10,344 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 683.5 | 1,150.7 | 774.7 | 10,000.0 | 17.9 | 379.2 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 111.63 | 8.73 | 35.71 | 1.73 | 54.67 | 27.28 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.18 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 111.63 | 8.73 | 198.10 | 1.73 | 54.67 | 27.28 | |
| Trading Currency | BRL | BRL | BRL | AED | USD | BRL | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.18 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |