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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 9.0x - 10.0x | 9.5x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 4.0x - 4.4x | 4.2x |
| Fair Value | EGP 44.66 - EGP 50.81 | EGP 47.74 |
| Upside | -13.4% - -1.5% | -7.5% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Cairo for Housing and Development Company (S.A.E) | ELKA | CASE:ELKA |
| Emaar Misr for Development Company (S.A.E.) | EMFD | CASE:EMFD |
| Sixth of October for Development and Investment Company "SODIC" (S.A.E.) | OCDI | CASE:OCDI |
| Heliopolis Co. for Housing & Development | HELI | CASE:HELI |
| Arab Company For Land Reclamation | EALR | CASE:EALR |
| Talaat Moustafa Group Holding | TMGH | CASE:TMGH |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| ELKA | EMFD | OCDI | HELI | EALR | TMGH | ||
| CASE:ELKA | CASE:EMFD | CASE:OCDI | CASE:HELI | CASE:EALR | CASE:TMGH | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 15.2% | 64.1% | 35.4% | 5.9% | NM- | 27.8% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -4.7% | 21.3% | 39.2% | 90.2% | NM- | 46.4% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 21.8% | 98.9% | 109.4% | -90.7% | 281.9% | 73.0% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 24.7% | 35.7% | 18.4% | 59.5% | -2.0% | 26.5% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 52.8% | 37.0% | 18.2% | 68.1% | 1.8% | 26.1% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 50.0% | 40.4% | 34.7% | 93.4% | 3.1% | 30.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 50.0% | 47.3% | 40.8% | 93.4% | 8.1% | 30.1% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 2.37x | 0.86x | 2.12x | 10.01x | 3.10x | 3.16x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.7x | 1.8x | 5.2x | 10.7x | 38.3x | 10.5x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 4.8x | 2.0x | 5.4x | 10.8x | 43.1x | 11.5x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 1.8x | 5.2x | 38.3x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.8x | 8.4x | 10.5x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.0x | 9.5x | 10.0x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 12,851 | 12,851 | 12,851 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 116,272 | 122,392 | 128,511 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (28,266) | (28,266) | (28,266) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 88,006 | 94,126 | 100,245 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 2,063.6 | 2,063.6 | 2,063.6 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 42.65 | 45.61 | 48.58 | ||||
| FX Rate: EGP/EGP | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 42.65 | 45.61 | 48.58 | 51.60 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -17.3% | -11.6% | -5.9% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | ELKA | EMFD | OCDI | HELI | EALR | TMGH | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,084 | 19,983 | 22,672 | 10,519 | 468 | 134,746 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 21 | 35,252 | 4,383 | 4,858 | 14 | 55,896 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 1,974 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6,815 | |
| (-) Debt | (964) | (5,287) | (5,083) | (611) | (5) | (30,250) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (0) | (0) | (65) | 0 | 0 | (60,726) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 2,115 | 49,948 | 21,906 | 14,766 | 480 | 106,480 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 896.4 | 5,446.9 | 356.2 | 1,335.1 | 5.2 | 2,063.6 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 2.36 | 9.17 | 61.50 | 11.06 | 92.34 | 51.60 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 2.36 | 9.17 | 61.50 | 11.06 | 92.34 | 51.60 | |
| Trading Currency | EGP | EGP | EGP | EGP | EGP | EGP | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |