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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 7.1x - 7.8x | 7.4x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 6.5x - 7.1x | 6.8x |
Fair Value | €30.27 - €33.54 | €31.90 |
Upside | 19.0% - 31.8% | 25.4% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Kirin Holdings Company, Limited | 2503 | TSE:2503 |
Asahi Group Holdings, Ltd. | 2502 | TSE:2502 |
Coca-Cola Bottlers Japan Holdings Inc. | 2579 | TSE:2579 |
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. | KDP | NasdaqGS:KDP |
The Coca-Cola Company | KO_KZ | KAS:KO_KZ |
Suntory Beverage & Food Limited | 7SN | DB:7SN |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
2503 | 2502 | 2579 | KDP | KO_KZ | 7SN | ||
TSE:2503 | TSE:2502 | TSE:2579 | NasdaqGS:KDP | KAS:KO_KZ | DB:7SN | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 4.8% | 5.6% | -4.9% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.6% | |
3Y CAGR | 7.9% | 8.3% | 19.4% | 3.4% | 6.1% | 8.2% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 0.2% | 3.9% | 16.4% | 1.1% | 5.5% | 6.4% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 12.5% | 14.2% | 5.6% | 27.9% | 32.9% | 13.7% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 12.7% | 14.4% | 5.7% | 26.6% | 31.4% | 12.8% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 12.2% | 14.2% | 6.6% | 26.9% | 32.7% | 13.5% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 12.3% | 14.2% | NA | 26.8% | 32.8% | 13.3% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 1.08x | 1.37x | 0.52x | 4.02x | 6.80x | 0.85x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.7x | 9.6x | 7.8x | 15.0x | 20.7x | 6.4x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 13.2x | 15.4x | 31.5x | 18.2x | 22.3x | 8.8x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.8x | 9.6x | 20.7x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.7x | 7.0x | 7.4x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.1x | 7.4x | 7.8x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 224,558 | 224,558 | 224,558 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 1,584,613 | 1,668,014 | 1,751,414 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (41,892) | (41,892) | (41,892) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 1,542,721 | 1,626,122 | 1,709,522 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 309.0 | 309.0 | 309.0 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 4,992.62 | 5,262.53 | 5,532.43 | ||||
FX Rate: JPY/EUR | 172.2 | 172.2 | 172.2 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 28.99 | 30.56 | 32.12 | 25.44 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | 13.9% | 20.1% | 26.3% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | 2503 | 2502 | 2579 | KDP | KO_KZ | 7SN | |
Enterprise Value | 2,563,718 | 4,041,113 | 466,451 | 62,310 | 322,812 | 1,395,788 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 122,515 | 68,916 | 64,300 | 653 | 13,787 | 129,279 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 229,795 | 222,178 | 393 | 1,599 | 20,484 | 14,864 | |
(-) Debt | (1,034,585) | (1,505,137) | (133,002) | (18,682) | (49,971) | (81,245) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (280,900) | (3,964) | (217) | 0 | (1,552) | (104,790) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 1,600,543 | 2,823,106 | 397,925 | 45,880 | 305,560 | 1,353,896 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 810.0 | 1,502.9 | 170.8 | 1,358.2 | 4,304.3 | 309.0 | |
Implied Stock Price | 1,976.00 | 1,878.50 | 2,329.50 | 33.78 | 70.99 | 4,381.54 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 172.23 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 1,976.00 | 1,878.50 | 2,329.50 | 33.78 | 70.99 | 25.44 | |
Trading Currency | JPY | JPY | JPY | USD | USD | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 172.23 |