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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 0.2x - 0.2x | 0.2x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 0.2x - 0.3x | 0.3x |
| Fair Value | €6.71 - €7.74 | €7.22 |
| Upside | 29.0% - 48.8% | 38.9% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| ENEOS Holdings, Inc. | 5020 | TSE:5020 |
| Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited | 500104 | BSE:500104 |
| Indian Oil Corporation Limited | 530965 | BSE:530965 |
| PetroChina Company Limited | 857 | SEHK:857 |
| Shell plc | SHELL | ENXTAM:SHELL |
| Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. | I7B | DB:I7B |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| 5020 | 500104 | 530965 | 857 | SHELL | I7B | |||
| TSE:5020 | BSE:500104 | BSE:530965 | SEHK:857 | ENXTAM:SHELL | DB:I7B | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 4.2% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 3.1% | -3.8% | 8.7% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | 4.1% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 11.2% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | -11.1% | 0.0% | -2.4% | -6.9% | -7.0% | 5.4% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 3.0% | 2.2% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 3.3% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 2.9% | 4.5% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 10.9% | 4.0% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 0.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 8.4% | 11.8% | 1.8% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 0.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 8.6% | 11.6% | 1.8% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.28x | 0.30x | 0.37x | 0.48x | 0.76x | 0.18x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 35.3x | 12.1x | 14.7x | 5.6x | 6.5x | 10.2x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 0.15x | 0.20x | 0.26x | 0.50x | 0.69x | 0.11x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.28x | 0.37x | 0.76x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 0.18x | 0.25x | 0.34x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 0.21x | 0.22x | 0.23x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 9,190,225 | 9,190,225 | 9,190,225 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 1,924,546 | 2,025,838 | 2,127,130 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (623,256) | (623,256) | (623,256) | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 1,301,290 | 1,402,582 | 1,503,874 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,224.6 | 1,224.6 | 1,224.6 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 1,062.59 | 1,145.30 | 1,228.02 | |||||
| FX Rate: JPY/EUR | 163.5 | 163.5 | 163.5 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 6.50 | 7.00 | 7.51 | 5.20 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | 25.0% | 34.7% | 44.4% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 5020 | 500104 | 530965 | 857 | SHELL | I7B | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,406,324 | 1,314,563 | 2,839,752 | 1,576,970 | 213,810 | 1,664,460 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 846,563 | 35,063 | 136,739 | 316,530 | 35,601 | 165,762 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 610,388 | 237,939 | 568,496 | 300,860 | 26,520 | 424,686 | |
| (-) Debt | (2,676,027) | (705,582) | (1,522,706) | (364,748) | (76,511) | (1,196,374) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (369,903) | 0 | (45,373) | (199,413) | (1,856) | (17,330) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,817,345 | 881,982 | 1,976,908 | 1,630,199 | 197,564 | 1,041,204 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 2,690.4 | 2,127.8 | 13,771.6 | 273,222.9 | 5,949.5 | 1,224.6 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 675.50 | 414.50 | 143.55 | 5.97 | 33.21 | 850.21 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.92 | 1.13 | 163.50 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 675.50 | 414.50 | 143.55 | 6.50 | 29.28 | 5.20 | |
| Trading Currency | JPY | INR | INR | HKD | EUR | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.92 | 1.13 | 163.50 | |