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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 0.8x - 0.9x | 0.8x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 0.7x - 0.8x | 0.8x |
| Fair Value | €25.31 - €27.80 | €26.56 |
| Upside | -18.1% - -10.1% | -14.1% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha | 9101 | TSE:9101 |
| ZERO Co., Ltd. | 9028 | TSE:9028 |
| COSCO SHIPPING Specialized Carriers Co.,Ltd. | 600428 | SHSE:600428 |
| Star Bulk Carriers Corp. | SBLK | NasdaqGS:SBLK |
| Yang Ming Marine Transport Corporation | 2609 | TWSE:2609 |
| Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Ltd. | MILA | DB:MILA |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| 9101 | 9028 | 600428 | SBLK | 2609 | MILA | |||
| TSE:9101 | TSE:9028 | SHSE:600428 | NasdaqGS:SBLK | TWSE:2609 | DB:MILA | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 9.2% | 9.3% | 15.2% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 9.0% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | 4.3% | 15.2% | 24.2% | -3.9% | -12.6% | 11.8% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 8.4% | 9.2% | 46.8% | 33.3% | 52.2% | 9.1% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 8.3% | 4.5% | 11.0% | 29.9% | 32.3% | 4.8% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 7.3% | 3.8% | 9.0% | 20.7% | -1.2% | 7.4% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 8.1% | 4.8% | 14.5% | 26.9% | 30.3% | 8.5% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 8.1% | 6.5% | 13.8% | 26.9% | 29.7% | 8.5% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.34x | 0.29x | 1.67x | 2.19x | 0.39x | 0.95x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 4.2x | 4.6x | 12.1x | 8.1x | 1.3x | 11.2x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 0.87x | 0.32x | 0.94x | 1.55x | 1.21x | 1.00x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.29x | 0.39x | 2.19x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 0.38x | 0.95x | 1.09x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 0.79x | 0.83x | 0.87x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 1,775,470 | 1,775,470 | 1,775,470 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 1,395,678 | 1,469,135 | 1,542,592 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 89,773 | 89,773 | 89,773 | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 1,485,451 | 1,558,908 | 1,632,365 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 345.9 | 345.9 | 345.9 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 4,294.84 | 4,507.22 | 4,719.61 | |||||
| FX Rate: JPY/EUR | 162.8 | 162.8 | 162.8 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 26.38 | 27.68 | 28.99 | 30.92 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | -14.7% | -10.5% | -6.3% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 9101 | 9028 | 600428 | SBLK | 2609 | MILA | |
| Enterprise Value | 886,894 | 42,754 | 30,396 | 2,988 | 96,120 | 1,651,552 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 156,012 | 12,433 | 2,881 | 427 | 234,833 | 163,290 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 1,987,760 | 6,946 | 0 | 2 | 32,750 | 1,779,474 | |
| (-) Debt | (738,461) | (14,850) | (15,112) | (1,456) | (85,228) | (1,815,443) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (51,097) | (667) | 0 | 0 | (853) | (37,548) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 2,241,108 | 46,616 | 18,165 | 1,961 | 277,622 | 1,741,325 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 432.3 | 16.8 | 2,743.9 | 116.7 | 3,492.1 | 345.9 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 5,184.00 | 2,780.00 | 6.62 | 16.80 | 79.50 | 5,034.64 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 162.83 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 5,184.00 | 2,780.00 | 6.62 | 16.80 | 79.50 | 30.92 | |
| Trading Currency | JPY | JPY | CNY | USD | TWD | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 162.83 | |