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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 0.2x - 0.3x | 0.3x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 0.2x - 0.3x | 0.2x |
| Fair Value | €3.33 - €3.82 | €3.57 |
| Upside | 36.5% - 56.5% | 46.5% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| PetroChina Company Limited | 857 | SEHK:857 |
| Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras | PETR3 | BOVESPA:PETR3 |
| Cosan S.A. | CSAN3 | BOVESPA:CSAN3 |
| Petroreconcavo S.A. | RECV3 | BOVESPA:RECV3 |
| Brava Energia S.A. | BRAV3 | BOVESPA:BRAV3 |
| Ultrapar Participações S.A. | UGR | DB:UGR |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| 857 | PETR3 | CSAN3 | RECV3 | BRAV3 | UGR | |||
| SEHK:857 | BOVESPA:PETR3 | BOVESPA:CSAN3 | BOVESPA:RECV3 | BOVESPA:BRAV3 | DB:UGR | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 3.1% | 13.2% | 26.5% | 57.2% | 206.2% | 8.4% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | 4.0% | 2.7% | 20.8% | 46.4% | 128.9% | 6.8% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | -6.9% | 1.1% | 10.3% | 19.0% | 36.0% | 8.4% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 6.5% | 38.6% | 17.3% | 31.3% | 13.8% | 2.1% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 8.3% | 39.8% | 19.2% | 24.2% | 23.3% | 3.1% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 8.4% | 31.7% | 22.7% | 29.0% | 21.0% | 2.9% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 8.6% | 30.9% | 23.3% | 29.8% | 20.8% | 2.8% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.55x | 1.50x | 1.73x | 1.44x | 2.42x | 0.19x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 6.3x | 4.8x | 7.4x | 4.8x | 11.7x | 6.8x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 0.57x | 0.84x | 0.25x | 1.19x | 0.90x | 0.12x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.55x | 1.50x | 2.42x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 0.15x | 0.28x | 0.45x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 0.24x | 0.26x | 0.27x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 136,432 | 136,432 | 136,432 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 33,154 | 34,899 | 36,644 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (9,243) | (9,243) | (9,243) | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 23,910 | 25,655 | 27,400 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,075.3 | 1,075.3 | 1,075.3 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 22.24 | 23.86 | 25.48 | |||||
| FX Rate: BRL/EUR | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 3.42 | 3.67 | 3.92 | 2.44 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | 40.1% | 50.3% | 60.5% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 857 | PETR3 | CSAN3 | RECV3 | BRAV3 | UGR | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,812,525 | 753,791 | 75,728 | 4,810 | 23,148 | 26,311 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 316,530 | 44,038 | 17,647 | 1,018 | 4,372 | 2,737 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 300,860 | 8,984 | 11,438 | 16 | 2,871 | 3,756 | |
| (-) Debt | (364,748) | (370,314) | (67,073) | (1,873) | (21,822) | (15,042) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (199,413) | (1,762) | (26,879) | 0 | 0 | (695) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,865,754 | 434,737 | 10,860 | 3,972 | 8,569 | 17,068 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 273,222.9 | 12,888.7 | 1,862.8 | 292.9 | 464.2 | 1,075.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 6.83 | 33.73 | 5.83 | 13.56 | 18.46 | 15.87 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.91 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 6.51 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 7.47 | 33.73 | 5.83 | 13.56 | 18.46 | 2.44 | |
| Trading Currency | HKD | BRL | BRL | BRL | BRL | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.91 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 6.51 | |