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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 7.8x - 8.6x | 8.2x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 7.2x - 8.0x | 7.6x |
Fair Value | €9.95 - €11.22 | €10.59 |
Upside | 22.8% - 38.5% | 30.7% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Daiichi Sankyo Company, Limited | 4568 | TSE:4568 |
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited | 4502 | TSE:4502 |
Kubota Pharmaceutical Holdings Co., Ltd. | 4596 | TSE:4596 |
Chunghwa Chemical Synthesis & Biotech Co., Ltd. | 1762 | TWSE:1762 |
Pfizer Inc. | PFE_KZ | KAS:PFE_KZ |
Astellas Pharma Inc. | YPH | DB:YPH |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
4568 | 4502 | 4596 | 1762 | PFE_KZ | YPH | ||
TSE:4568 | TSE:4502 | TSE:4596 | TWSE:1762 | KAS:PFE_KZ | DB:YPH | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 15.9% | 6.6% | NM- | -3.9% | 11.0% | 5.3% | |
3Y CAGR | 45.0% | 0.8% | NM- | -28.8% | -10.1% | 13.2% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 47.7% | 6.4% | 17.2% | -38.3% | 38.2% | 52.8% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 15.1% | 28.3% | -14657.8% | 25.1% | 35.5% | 21.9% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 16.9% | 26.7% | -3633.3% | 22.7% | 31.5% | 17.6% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 21.2% | 26.4% | -4325.9% | 15.3% | 36.7% | 22.6% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 21.2% | 26.4% | -3747.4% | 13.6% | 37.3% | 22.6% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 3.41x | 2.43x | 46.06x | 1.40x | 2.79x | 1.63x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 16.0x | 9.2x | -1.2x | 10.3x | 7.5x | 7.2x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 19.4x | 24.8x | -1.2x | -80.1x | 10.6x | 13.4x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | -1.2x | 9.2x | 16.0x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.2x | 10.2x | 14.3x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.8x | 8.2x | 8.6x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 431,680 | 431,680 | 431,680 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 3,365,186 | 3,542,301 | 3,719,416 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (624,065) | (624,065) | (624,065) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 2,741,121 | 2,918,236 | 3,095,351 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 1,790.1 | 1,790.1 | 1,790.1 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 1,531.26 | 1,630.20 | 1,729.14 | ||||
FX Rate: JPY/EUR | 162.4 | 162.4 | 162.4 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 9.43 | 10.04 | 10.65 | 8.10 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | 16.4% | 23.9% | 31.5% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | 4568 | 4502 | 4596 | 1762 | PFE_KZ | YPH | |
Enterprise Value | 6,422,244 | 11,138,717 | 1,328 | 1,842 | 175,929 | 2,978,831 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 639,838 | 385,113 | 1,264 | 275 | 17,319 | 188,372 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 5,600 | 10,802 | 8 | 1,031 | 1,917 | 18,989 | |
(-) Debt | (101,332) | (5,066,165) | (30) | (856) | (62,397) | (831,426) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (895) | 0 | 0 | (299) | 0 | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 6,966,350 | 6,467,572 | 2,570 | 2,292 | 132,469 | 2,354,766 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 1,866.7 | 1,561.8 | 58.4 | 77.6 | 5,685.4 | 1,790.1 | |
Implied Stock Price | 3,732.00 | 4,141.00 | 44.00 | 29.55 | 23.30 | 1,315.43 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 162.40 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 3,732.00 | 4,141.00 | 44.00 | 29.55 | 23.30 | 8.10 | |
Trading Currency | JPY | JPY | JPY | TWD | USD | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 162.40 |