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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 6.0x - 6.7x | 6.4x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 7.6x - 8.4x | 8.0x |
| Fair Value | Rp94.18 - Rp107.61 | Rp100.90 |
| Upside | -41.5% - -33.2% | -37.3% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| PT Hillcon Tbk | HILL | IDX:HILL |
| PT Steel Pipe Industry of Indonesia Tbk | ISSP | IDX:ISSP |
| PT PAM Mineral Tbk | NICL | IDX:NICL |
| PT Samator Indo Gas Tbk | AGII | IDX:AGII |
| Thuan Duc Joint Stock Company | TDP | HOSE:TDP |
| PT Darma Henwa Tbk | DEWA | IDX:DEWA |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| HILL | ISSP | NICL | AGII | TDP | DEWA | ||
| IDX:HILL | IDX:ISSP | IDX:NICL | IDX:AGII | HOSE:TDP | IDX:DEWA | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 45.2% | 15.2% | NM- | 2.1% | 16.9% | 6.6% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -1.0% | 6.0% | 84.8% | -5.4% | NM- | -7.4% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 11.4% | 6.7% | 35299.0% | -9.3% | 13.4% | -1.5% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 25.5% | 12.9% | 18.5% | 29.4% | 7.9% | 12.9% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 18.6% | 14.0% | 5.1% | 29.0% | 8.0% | 12.2% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 20.8% | 15.9% | 29.4% | 25.6% | 7.9% | 12.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 18.7% | 16.2% | 35.1% | 25.6% | 7.9% | 14.2% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.85x | 0.65x | 5.78x | 2.41x | 0.93x | 1.28x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.9x | 4.0x | 16.4x | 9.4x | 11.8x | 9.0x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 31.2x | 5.1x | 16.7x | 18.1x | 14.5x | 30.0x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.0x | 9.9x | 16.4x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 1.0x | 1.8x | 2.6x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.0x | 6.4x | 6.7x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 874,976 | 874,976 | 874,976 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 5,282,281 | 5,560,296 | 5,838,311 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (1,355,391) | (1,355,391) | (1,355,391) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 3,926,890 | 4,204,905 | 4,482,920 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 40,687.4 | 40,687.4 | 40,687.4 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 96.51 | 103.35 | 110.18 | ||||
| FX Rate: IDR/IDR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 96.51 | 103.35 | 110.18 | 161.00 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -40.1% | -35.8% | -31.6% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | HILL | ISSP | NICL | AGII | TDP | DEWA | |
| Enterprise Value | 7,990,550 | 3,914,686 | 10,799,334 | 7,014,716 | 4,074,265 | 7,906,068 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 42,091 | 620,357 | 479,523 | 384,284 | 1,038,465 | 463,909 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 39,549 | 0 | 0 | 506,218 | 1,113,337 | |
| (-) Debt | (3,593,038) | (2,483,245) | (2,892) | (3,629,527) | (2,535,580) | (2,934,996) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (253,017) | (6) | (2,182) | (89,481) | 0 | 2,359 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 4,186,586 | 2,091,341 | 11,273,784 | 3,679,992 | 3,083,368 | 6,550,677 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 14,741.5 | 7,065.3 | 10,635.6 | 3,066.7 | 88.2 | 40,687.4 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 284.00 | 296.00 | 1,060.00 | 1,200.00 | 34,950.00 | 161.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 284.00 | 296.00 | 1,060.00 | 1,200.00 | 34,950.00 | 161.00 | |
| Trading Currency | IDR | IDR | IDR | IDR | VND | IDR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |