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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 21.3x - 23.6x | 22.5x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 25.5x - 28.1x | 26.8x |
| Fair Value | Rp323.87 - Rp360.98 | Rp342.42 |
| Upside | 1.2% - 12.8% | 7.0% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| PT Avia Avian Tbk | AVIA | IDX:AVIA |
| PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk | INTP | IDX:INTP |
| PT Cita Mineral Investindo Tbk | CITA | IDX:CITA |
| PT Fajar Surya Wisesa Tbk | FASW | IDX:FASW |
| Petrovietnam Camau Fertilizer Joint Stock Company | DCM | HOSE:DCM |
| PT Impack Pratama Industri Tbk | IMPC | IDX:IMPC |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| AVIA | INTP | CITA | FASW | DCM | IMPC | ||
| IDX:AVIA | IDX:INTP | IDX:CITA | IDX:FASW | HOSE:DCM | IDX:IMPC | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 7.1% | 1.3% | -6.0% | NM- | -5.9% | 27.1% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 0.9% | 4.7% | 5.0% | NM- | -26.8% | 32.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 3.8% | 7.9% | 50.8% | -345.4% | -10.8% | 20.4% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 26.2% | 19.0% | 12.9% | 6.3% | 24.1% | 19.5% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 26.7% | 17.6% | 10.7% | -1.5% | 14.0% | 20.6% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 26.0% | 18.4% | 22.2% | -6.6% | 9.4% | 23.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 26.0% | 18.4% | 22.2% | -6.6% | 9.9% | 23.2% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 2.90x | 0.82x | 4.28x | 2.71x | 0.70x | 4.70x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 11.1x | 4.5x | 19.3x | -41.2x | 7.1x | 20.2x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 12.1x | 6.5x | 23.5x | -24.4x | 8.8x | 22.9x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | -41.2x | 7.1x | 19.3x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 20.2x | 31.4x | 38.4x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 21.3x | 22.5x | 23.6x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 900,910 | 900,910 | 900,910 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 19,231,553 | 20,243,740 | 21,255,927 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (1,555,205) | (1,555,205) | (1,555,205) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 17,676,348 | 18,688,535 | 19,700,722 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 54,268.5 | 54,268.5 | 54,268.5 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 325.72 | 344.37 | 363.02 | ||||
| FX Rate: IDR/IDR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 325.72 | 344.37 | 363.02 | 320.00 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 1.8% | 7.6% | 13.4% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | AVIA | INTP | CITA | FASW | DCM | IMPC | |
| Enterprise Value | 21,666,729 | 15,269,038 | 10,211,594 | 20,899,014 | 9,934,369 | 18,921,125 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 5,282,391 | 4,496,547 | 1,572,507 | 71,962 | 9,001,582 | 289,188 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 19,976 | 260,522 | 4,254,491 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (93,382) | (2,438,744) | 0 | (7,466,482) | (1,803,293) | (1,594,203) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (6,487) | 0 | 871 | 0 | (33,038) | (250,191) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 26,869,227 | 17,587,363 | 16,039,463 | 13,504,494 | 17,099,620 | 17,365,920 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 60,790.1 | 3,350.0 | 3,960.4 | 2,477.9 | 529.4 | 54,268.5 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 442.00 | 5,250.00 | 4,050.00 | 5,450.00 | 32,300.00 | 320.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 442.00 | 5,250.00 | 4,050.00 | 5,450.00 | 32,300.00 | 320.00 | |
| Trading Currency | IDR | IDR | IDR | IDR | VND | IDR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |