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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 4.8x - 5.3x | 5.0x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 4.9x - 5.4x | 5.2x |
Fair Value | Rp1,039 - Rp1,151 | Rp1,095 |
Upside | 13.6% - 25.8% | 19.7% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk | AALI | IDX:AALI |
PT Diamond Food Indonesia Tbk | DMND | IDX:DMND |
PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo Tbk | ROTI | IDX:ROTI |
PT Ultrajaya Milk Industry & Trading Company Tbk | ULTJ | IDX:ULTJ |
PT Cerestar Indonesia Tbk | TRGU | IDX:TRGU |
PT Sumber Tani Agung Resources Tbk | STAA | IDX:STAA |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
AALI | DMND | ROTI | ULTJ | TRGU | STAA | ||
IDX:AALI | IDX:DMND | IDX:ROTI | IDX:ULTJ | IDX:TRGU | IDX:STAA | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 4.1% | 1.2% | 6.4% | 1.6% | NM- | 26.4% | |
3Y CAGR | -9.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | -4.1% | 3.9% | 3.9% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 6.6% | 15.4% | -8.9% | -6.5% | -32.9% | 63.2% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 16.1% | 6.9% | 17.0% | 21.7% | 4.8% | 31.1% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 14.5% | 6.0% | 17.1% | 19.8% | 3.4% | 25.9% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 14.7% | 6.6% | 17.5% | 17.7% | 3.0% | 34.6% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 13.6% | 6.3% | 16.3% | 16.9% | 3.2% | 34.9% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 0.40x | 0.68x | 1.35x | 1.37x | 0.75x | 1.51x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.9x | 10.2x | 8.2x | 8.1x | 23.2x | 4.3x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 5.1x | 15.1x | 11.5x | 8.9x | 39.6x | 5.0x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.9x | 8.2x | 23.2x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.3x | 5.8x | 6.9x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.8x | 5.0x | 5.3x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 2,384,574 | 2,384,574 | 2,384,574 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 11,385,900 | 11,985,158 | 12,584,416 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (235,218) | (235,218) | (235,218) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 11,150,682 | 11,749,940 | 12,349,198 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 10,903.4 | 10,903.4 | 10,903.4 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 1,022.68 | 1,077.64 | 1,132.60 | ||||
FX Rate: IDR/IDR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 1,022.68 | 1,077.64 | 1,132.60 | 915.00 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | 11.8% | 17.8% | 23.8% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | AALI | DMND | ROTI | ULTJ | TRGU | STAA | |
Enterprise Value | 9,523,793 | 6,599,068 | 5,157,369 | 12,150,811 | 3,170,857 | 10,211,804 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 5,338,299 | 554,071 | 325,032 | 2,183,735 | 12,871 | 1,702,688 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 370,247 | 71,921 | 8,442 | 140,403 | 0 | 17,254 | |
(-) Debt | (3,189,708) | 0 | (614,031) | (35,370) | (1,769,444) | (1,473,224) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (542,618) | (29,107) | (5,273) | (90,097) | (1) | (481,936) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 11,500,013 | 7,195,953 | 4,871,539 | 14,349,482 | 1,414,283 | 9,976,586 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 1,924.7 | 9,468.4 | 5,664.6 | 10,398.2 | 7,945.4 | 10,903.4 | |
Implied Stock Price | 5,975.00 | 760.00 | 860.00 | 1,380.00 | 178.00 | 915.00 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 5,975.00 | 760.00 | 860.00 | 1,380.00 | 178.00 | 915.00 | |
Trading Currency | IDR | IDR | IDR | IDR | IDR | IDR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |