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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 21.1x - 23.3x | 22.2x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 12.8x - 14.1x | 13.5x |
| Fair Value | $37.93 - $41.59 | $39.76 |
| Upside | 7.2% - 17.6% | 12.4% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| H World Group Limited | HTHT | NasdaqGS:HTHT |
| Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited | TNGC.F | OTCPK:TNGC.F |
| Tuniu Corporation | TOUR | NasdaqGM:TOUR |
| Haidilao International Holding Ltd. | HDAL.F | OTCPK:HDAL.F |
| Luckin Coffee Inc. | LKNC.Y | OTCPK:LKNC.Y |
| Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited | ATAT | NasdaqGS:ATAT |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| HTHT | TNGC.F | TOUR | HDAL.F | LKNC.Y | ATAT | ||
| NasdaqGS:HTHT | OTCPK:TNGC.F | NasdaqGM:TOUR | OTCPK:HDAL.F | OTCPK:LKNC.Y | NasdaqGS:ATAT | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 19.8% | 25.5% | NM- | 13.8% | NM- | 77.8% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 216.5% | 52.5% | NM- | 113.9% | NM- | 102.3% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 4.4% | 62.6% | -40.8% | 9.4% | 137.1% | 39.3% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 6.6% | 8.8% | -78.3% | 7.7% | -3.7% | 14.0% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 21.6% | 14.4% | 12.0% | 13.4% | 12.1% | 19.8% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 21.8% | 14.0% | 14.0% | 14.2% | 9.9% | 22.4% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 22.0% | 15.6% | 9.3% | 14.2% | 12.0% | 21.5% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 3.86x | 1.84x | -0.87x | 1.50x | 2.11x | 4.14x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 14.1x | 8.7x | -8.0x | 8.1x | 13.8x | 18.6x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 17.5x | 11.8x | -9.3x | 10.6x | 17.7x | 19.3x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | -9.3x | 11.8x | 17.7x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 17.1x | 25.3x | 60.1x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 21.1x | 22.2x | 23.3x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 1,653 | 1,653 | 1,653 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 34,882 | 36,718 | 38,553 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 3,135 | 3,135 | 3,135 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 38,017 | 39,853 | 41,689 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 137.6 | 137.6 | 137.6 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 276.29 | 289.64 | 302.98 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/USD | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 38.48 | 40.34 | 42.19 | 35.38 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 8.8% | 14.0% | 19.3% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | HTHT | TNGC.F | TOUR | HDAL.F | LKNC.Y | ATAT | |
| Enterprise Value | 93,107 | 29,226 | (817) | 75,452 | 86,800 | 31,821 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 10,866 | 10,929 | 1,044 | 9,580 | 7,410 | 4,885 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 2,336 | 3,788 | 349 | 2,502 | 700 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (35,124) | (4,980) | (5) | (6,168) | (6,172) | (1,759) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (127) | (971) | 72 | 16 | 0 | 9 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (1,515) | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 71,058 | 37,991 | 644 | 81,382 | 87,223 | 34,957 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 306.9 | 2,300.3 | 116.0 | 6,666.7 | 320.6 | 137.6 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 231.51 | 16.52 | 5.55 | 12.21 | 272.08 | 254.05 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 7.18 | 7.18 | 7.18 | 7.18 | 7.18 | 7.18 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 32.24 | 2.30 | 0.77 | 1.70 | 37.89 | 35.38 | |
| Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 7.18 | 7.18 | 7.18 | 7.18 | 7.18 | 7.18 | |